Feb 15, 2013 Noon Update

Weekend Storm Update: The model guidance continues to show a storm affecting parts of the region, but as of the most recent blog update on Thursday morning, there was some uncertainty regarding how this plays out, whether it's a light to moderate snowstorm for the area with higher totals towards Connecticut, or a minor snow event with totals under 2-3 inches. The model guidance has been split between these solutions, but are converging on an agreement with the latter scenario, in which the area sees light rain/snow changing to snow tonight into Saturday morning, with minor accumulations generally up to 1-2 inches possible.

Uncertainty has been focused on a stronger coastal low pressure that develops off the southeastern US coast on Saturday, tracking northeast parallel to the coast overnight into Sunday while quickly intensifying. Some models earlier showed this close enough to the coast to result in a major snowstorm for the area into New England, but have since backed to the east, with the most impacts from this coastal low likely towards Long Island and New England. This part of the forecast can still slightly change, although at this time the coastal low is mostly expected to stay east of the area, with additional light snow on Saturday night for Long Island and southern Connecticut, especially further east, with additional light to possibly moderate accumulations. At this time, accumulations are expected to remain under 4 inches in Long Island and CT, although should the storm end up slightly further west, accumulations over 4 inches may be possible for eastern Long Island and SE CT. Dry conditions are expected for Sunday as the storm reaches its peak near Atlantic Canada, with much colder temperatures as highs only rise into the mid to upper 20s.

A more detailed forecast will be posted later tonight, along with an update on the potentially stormy pattern coming up for the next 1-2 weeks.