A few updates will be posted regarding today's storm. The next forecast discussion will be posted tonight focusing on the Friday night-weekend storm.
12:30 PM: Over the last 1/2 hour, precipitation spread into the western half of the area, with reports of moderate to locally heavy snow over western and parts of central New Jersey. The rain/snow line is not expected to advance much more southeast, with the immediate NYC area, Long Island and southern CT still expected to end up with rain. For interior western locations, a changeover to rain is likely later on, although some locations may receive a coating to locally 1/2 inch of snow until then, especially the higher elevations further west.
In the NYC area, however, the onset of precipitation was delayed enough compared to Pennsylvania to allow for surface temperatures to quickly warm up into the upper 30s-low 40s inland and the mid 40s for the rest of the area. With a continued southerly flow and warmer temperatures at the surface compared to locations further west, precipitation is expected to fall as rain across the area, although western-possibly central NJ and interior SE NY are likely to start out with some snow, especially with a small pocket of sub-freezing 925mb temperatures approaching from Pennsylvania. Showers will continue through the afternoon and early evening hours before ending, perhaps ending as snow for interior areas, with at least 1/4 inch of rain expected.
Afternoon, Sir...according to the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, Doppler radar intercepted a narrow line of shallow convective with a couple of lightning strikes at 2:40 PM between 2:50 PM, but to you, do you think we may see some thunderstorms for today?
ReplyDeleteThese thunderstorms have been reported over central Pennsylvania, well west of the area. At this time I do not think thunderstorms are likely for the NYC area, although locally heavy showers are possible this evening as the cold front comes through.
Delete