Notes:
- The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the entire area, the forecast temperatures for each part of the area can be found in the 5-day forecast. Tonight's discussion mainly focuses on the scenarios for the storms and less on the temperatures.
- The poll for tomorrow's storm has ended yesterday, with the results below. A new poll has been opened for the potential Christmas storm, please vote your thoughts on that poll, which will close on Thursday.
5 votes - Storm well to the south, dry and cold
10 votes - Storm clips NYC with light snow
4 votes - Heavy snow and wind in NYC
2 votes - Too close to coast, rain/snow mix
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Today brought increasing clouds to the area as a storm to the south brought rain and some frozen precipitation to the Southeast. Despite this being the short range, I am now keeping an eye on the possibility that the storm tracks further west than currently expected, with perhaps some snow accumulations in Long Island tomorrow.
Tomorrow's Storm: Snow In Long Island?
Yesterday, it became apparent that the storm would fail to impact places near and west of NYC with anything more than a few flakes, if even that. The latest short term models, however, are catching on to the possibility that the storm may try to move NNE up the coast, bringing 1-2 inches of snow to Long Island and even more snow for Cape Cod, eastern Massachusetts and Maine, while models such as the GGEM and GFS do not show this scenario.
With this being in the near future, it is coming down to simple observations such as the radar and where the storm is tracking to determine whether the solution that the short range models are showing may verify or not. At this time, I went with a 70% chance of snow in Long Island with potential accumulations up to 1 inch, but this is based on the possibility of the storm tracking further west. This change, however, would have very little impact on the rest of the area, with NYC only seeing flurries with the western parts of the area staying dry.
Stay tuned for an update tomorrow morning about this possibility, and a Light Snow Alert may be needed for eastern Long Island if the storm does track further west than originally expected.
Tuesday-Wednesday Clipper: No Snow Expected
Yesterday, the potential of a weak clipper affecting the Mid Atlantic was discussed, with some uncertainties that have been mostly eliminated with today's models. The clipper is expected to significantly weaken east of the Appalachians, and bring some light snow to the central Mid Atlantic, including Washington DC, between Tuesday and Wednesday with the area staying dry. I did, however, mention the potential of flurries in the 5-Day Forecast.
Temperatures will slowly warm up through this time frame, with Wednesday's high temperatures the warmest over the next week or so, peaking in the mid 30s inland, mid to upper 30s in the immediate NYC area, and upper 30s for Long Island/S CT. A few places in the central and eastern parts of the area may reach the 40 degree mark.
Thursday - Sunday: Dry Start, Potential Christmas Storm
Thursday and early Friday are expected to be dry once again for the area as the effects of tomorrow's storms will end as the storm, still expected to be off the coast early in the week, will move away from the region. More sunshine is expected with temperatures generally remaining steady, slightly cooling down from Wednesday. Meanwhile, another storm is expected to start taking shape in the central US, moving towards the region.
The models today have backed away from the big snowstorm solution that the GFS had yesterday, with most of them showing a snowstorm well to the south of the area. This is still in the long range, however, and while it is possible that the storm does stay to the south of the area, it is also possible that the storm trends north to affect the area. The difference with this storm and the previous one, however, is that there are less players coming into play with the scenario, so it appears that the models may have an easier time handling this storm than tomorrow's storm, when we're less than a day from the storm and there is still some uncertainty.
At this time, it is likely that a storm will be moving west to east through the central US during this time frame, which would then bring at least some snow to the central and potentially southern Mid Atlantic, but what happens from there is a question, as it is possible that the storm moves ENE and out to sea, or it could intensify and move NE up the coast, bringing a big snowstorm for the coast or into the Interstate 95 corridor.
Details are uncertain at this time, however there is the potential of a storm to affect the region during this time frame with snow, and may potentially affect the area. Stay tuned for more information about this storm.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Friday, December 17, 2010
Dec 17: Sunday Snow Unlikely, Looking Ahead
Notes:
- The Snow Alert has been removed for the eastern parts of the area. More information on that is below.
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Today was a partly cloudy day across the area with slightly warmer temperatures than those of yesterday, which continues the warming trend from earlier this week when high temperatures were barely in the 20s.
Tomorrow will be a mostly sunny day with more clouds by the afternoon with a west wind. High temperatures will be in the lower 30s inland and in the mid to potentially upper 30s across the rest of the area. A storm will affect the Southeast with rain and some snow, however it now appears that the storm will miss the area with nothing more than flurries across the eastern parts of the area.
December 19-20 Storm: Now Likely To Stay East Of NYC
It first appeared that a storm potential existed for this time frame on Sunday, when I mentioned it in my discussion. The following day, the GFS model jumped on board, showing a blizzard for the area. Over the last few days, however, the models trended east, and despite yesterday's afternoon runs, which briefly went west again to show some light snow for NYC, today's models continued trending east, and are now in agreement with any snow staying south/east of NYC.
The models are also starting to become much more consistent with the storm, meaning that while some minor shifts are expected, a trend big enough to put the NYC area in the potential area of several inches of snow is very unlikely to happen. This was a very possible solution all along, which was the reason why I kept the minimum potential snowfall at 0 inches in case this scenario would verify, which now appears to be the likely scenario.
The models now show a much weaker and further south storm by Sunday morning, which ends up southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC, slowly intensifying and moving NE. The models yesterday had the storm already steadily intensifying with a negative tilt moving NNE by this time, however today's consensus shows a weak storm further east still moving NE and only slowly intensifying. The storm becomes more intense by Monday, however by then it is already well northeast of the area. Based on this scenario, I removed snow chances for the interior and only kept a chance of flurries in the NYC area in case the storm trends slightly more west, though if there's no changes in the forecast that chance will likely be removed tomorrow.
Looking at the temperatures for the area, since we're not looking at much, if any precipitation for Sunday, temperatures will be slightly warmer than previously expected, in the lower to upper 30s across the area, and low temperatures on Sunday night could be cold again, in the mid 10s inland and upper 10s to mid 20s in the NYC area. Monday will be a partly cloudy and breezy day with slightly colder temperatures, in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Tuesday - Wednesday: Clipper Brings Light Snow Potential
The storm that will miss the area to the east this weekend is expected to end up in the Atlantic Ocean away from Nova Scotia by Tuesday, however another clipper is expected to be near the Ohio Valley, moving east or ESE towards the Mid Atlantic and southern Northeast. There are differences with the timing and the location of the weekend storm, which will influence what this storm might do, however it appears that this storm may have the potential of bringing light snow to the area between Tuesday night and Wednesday.
It is possible that the storm stays south of the area with only light snow in the central Mid Atlantic, another possibility is that the storm is further north and stronger, and brings a period of steady snow to the area. At this time, I am leaning towards the southern solution, with some light snow in the central Mid Atlantic and perhaps some snow showers in the area. Regardless of the storm scenario, however, it appears that the storm may end up being absorbed into the larger storm to its east, which would prevent this from becoming a notable snow producer east of the Appalachians, however this potential is also uncertain and could change. More information on this clipper will be posted over the next few days.
Thursday - Sunday: Cold And Dry Start, Potential Christmas Storm?
By Thursday and Friday, once the previous storm exits the region, dry conditions with less cloud cover are expected once again, and temperatures are expected to remain chilly and generally steady in this time frame. By Saturday, however, the latest model runs have been showing a potential storm, which would be a clipper moving east through the central US and affecting the area. The GFS model was the most aggressive with this potential, with its 18z run showing over 6 inches of snow for NYC. As this is in the longer range, it is too early to look at the specific details of the storm, such as where it tracks and where snow falls, however there is the potential for a storm during this time frame that needs to be watched. Stay tuned for more information on this potential storm and how it may affect the area.
- The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the entire area, with a new 5-Day Graphic.
- The Snow Alert has been removed for the eastern parts of the area. More information on that is below.
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Today was a partly cloudy day across the area with slightly warmer temperatures than those of yesterday, which continues the warming trend from earlier this week when high temperatures were barely in the 20s.Tomorrow will be a mostly sunny day with more clouds by the afternoon with a west wind. High temperatures will be in the lower 30s inland and in the mid to potentially upper 30s across the rest of the area. A storm will affect the Southeast with rain and some snow, however it now appears that the storm will miss the area with nothing more than flurries across the eastern parts of the area.
December 19-20 Storm: Now Likely To Stay East Of NYC
It first appeared that a storm potential existed for this time frame on Sunday, when I mentioned it in my discussion. The following day, the GFS model jumped on board, showing a blizzard for the area. Over the last few days, however, the models trended east, and despite yesterday's afternoon runs, which briefly went west again to show some light snow for NYC, today's models continued trending east, and are now in agreement with any snow staying south/east of NYC.The models are also starting to become much more consistent with the storm, meaning that while some minor shifts are expected, a trend big enough to put the NYC area in the potential area of several inches of snow is very unlikely to happen. This was a very possible solution all along, which was the reason why I kept the minimum potential snowfall at 0 inches in case this scenario would verify, which now appears to be the likely scenario.
The models now show a much weaker and further south storm by Sunday morning, which ends up southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC, slowly intensifying and moving NE. The models yesterday had the storm already steadily intensifying with a negative tilt moving NNE by this time, however today's consensus shows a weak storm further east still moving NE and only slowly intensifying. The storm becomes more intense by Monday, however by then it is already well northeast of the area. Based on this scenario, I removed snow chances for the interior and only kept a chance of flurries in the NYC area in case the storm trends slightly more west, though if there's no changes in the forecast that chance will likely be removed tomorrow.
Looking at the temperatures for the area, since we're not looking at much, if any precipitation for Sunday, temperatures will be slightly warmer than previously expected, in the lower to upper 30s across the area, and low temperatures on Sunday night could be cold again, in the mid 10s inland and upper 10s to mid 20s in the NYC area. Monday will be a partly cloudy and breezy day with slightly colder temperatures, in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Tuesday - Wednesday: Clipper Brings Light Snow Potential
The storm that will miss the area to the east this weekend is expected to end up in the Atlantic Ocean away from Nova Scotia by Tuesday, however another clipper is expected to be near the Ohio Valley, moving east or ESE towards the Mid Atlantic and southern Northeast. There are differences with the timing and the location of the weekend storm, which will influence what this storm might do, however it appears that this storm may have the potential of bringing light snow to the area between Tuesday night and Wednesday.
It is possible that the storm stays south of the area with only light snow in the central Mid Atlantic, another possibility is that the storm is further north and stronger, and brings a period of steady snow to the area. At this time, I am leaning towards the southern solution, with some light snow in the central Mid Atlantic and perhaps some snow showers in the area. Regardless of the storm scenario, however, it appears that the storm may end up being absorbed into the larger storm to its east, which would prevent this from becoming a notable snow producer east of the Appalachians, however this potential is also uncertain and could change. More information on this clipper will be posted over the next few days.
Thursday - Sunday: Cold And Dry Start, Potential Christmas Storm?
By Thursday and Friday, once the previous storm exits the region, dry conditions with less cloud cover are expected once again, and temperatures are expected to remain chilly and generally steady in this time frame. By Saturday, however, the latest model runs have been showing a potential storm, which would be a clipper moving east through the central US and affecting the area. The GFS model was the most aggressive with this potential, with its 18z run showing over 6 inches of snow for NYC. As this is in the longer range, it is too early to look at the specific details of the storm, such as where it tracks and where snow falls, however there is the potential for a storm during this time frame that needs to be watched. Stay tuned for more information on this potential storm and how it may affect the area.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Dec 16: Snowstorm Potential Sunday-Monday
Today was a mainly cloudy day across the area as a storm brought several inches of snow to the south of the area, mainly in Virginia. Clouds are expected to continue through tonight with less cloud cover for tomorrow, however the main attention at this time is on a potential storm for Sunday and Monday that will likely bring accumulating snow to at least parts of, if not most of the area.
Sunday - Monday Storm Discussion:
Today's models were almost the complete opposite of those of last night and this morning. Yesterday, most models were well east of the area, with most of the snow staying offshore. This reached a peak this morning, when almost every model except for the ECMWF model kept snow to the east of the area. By this afternoon, however, the models quickly trended west, with the ECMWF model in the lead, showing what appears to be a blizzard for NYC with mixing issues in Long Island. This solution appears to be the western outlier at this time, and at the same time, the 18z NAM/GFS which kept most of the precipitation offshore also seem to be outliers in how they handle the storm, though no solution is completely ruled out yet as there is still uncertainty.
Despite the unusually large uncertainty for this being in the shorter range, there does seem to be enough confidence for at least some accumulations in the eastern parts of the area, and to stay conservative, I went with a Snow Alert, or a less than 30% chance of 3-7 inches of snow. This alert is still low confidence, however, and may be removed or upgraded tomorrow based on the model trends tomorrow. With the models trending west, the potential of at least some flakes in New York City also seems to be increasing, and I went with likely precipitation in the 5-Day Forecast. The western parts of the area appear to be mainly dry at this time, but should watch the trends in case a scenario like that of the 12z ECMWF verifies.
This is not an easy forecast to make, given the large spread in the models, and it may not be until tomorrow night or even Saturday night that we will know for sure what will happen with this storm. There is still a large spread in potentials, and it is possible that the area receives no snow at all, and if the western solutions verify, as much as a foot of snow, or even more could be possible in parts of the area.
At this time, I am going with an in between solution of the potential of several inches of snow for the eastern parts of the area, the potential of light accumulations in NYC and some light snow further west, however this is relatively low confidence and is subject to change. Stay tuned for a full discussion on this storm tomorrow and more updates on this storm throughout the next few days.
Sunday - Monday Storm Discussion:
Today's models were almost the complete opposite of those of last night and this morning. Yesterday, most models were well east of the area, with most of the snow staying offshore. This reached a peak this morning, when almost every model except for the ECMWF model kept snow to the east of the area. By this afternoon, however, the models quickly trended west, with the ECMWF model in the lead, showing what appears to be a blizzard for NYC with mixing issues in Long Island. This solution appears to be the western outlier at this time, and at the same time, the 18z NAM/GFS which kept most of the precipitation offshore also seem to be outliers in how they handle the storm, though no solution is completely ruled out yet as there is still uncertainty.
Despite the unusually large uncertainty for this being in the shorter range, there does seem to be enough confidence for at least some accumulations in the eastern parts of the area, and to stay conservative, I went with a Snow Alert, or a less than 30% chance of 3-7 inches of snow. This alert is still low confidence, however, and may be removed or upgraded tomorrow based on the model trends tomorrow. With the models trending west, the potential of at least some flakes in New York City also seems to be increasing, and I went with likely precipitation in the 5-Day Forecast. The western parts of the area appear to be mainly dry at this time, but should watch the trends in case a scenario like that of the 12z ECMWF verifies.
This is not an easy forecast to make, given the large spread in the models, and it may not be until tomorrow night or even Saturday night that we will know for sure what will happen with this storm. There is still a large spread in potentials, and it is possible that the area receives no snow at all, and if the western solutions verify, as much as a foot of snow, or even more could be possible in parts of the area.
At this time, I am going with an in between solution of the potential of several inches of snow for the eastern parts of the area, the potential of light accumulations in NYC and some light snow further west, however this is relatively low confidence and is subject to change. Stay tuned for a full discussion on this storm tomorrow and more updates on this storm throughout the next few days.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Dec 15: Sunday-Monday Storm Update
Today was a mostly cloudy and breezy day across the area, with high temperatures generally in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Temperatures will continue to steadily moderate through the week, with highs reaching the upper 30s by Friday and Saturday, and by Sunday, a storm is expected to be offshore but needs to be kept an eye on in case it trends west, and may potentially affect the area.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will be a partly cloudy day across the area with a west wind expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and in the lower to mid 30s for the rest of the area.
An Alberta clipper will bring the first significant snowfall of the winter to Virginia, where 4 to 8 inches of snow are expected in parts of the southern and central parts of the state, and while the storm will stay south of NYC for the main part, a few flurries south of NYC are possible on Thursday night.
Friday - Monday: Warmer, Dry First, Followed By Storm Potential
Friday and Saturday are both expected to be warmer as the air mass will not be as cold, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across most of the area. The immediate NYC area may even reach the 40 degree mark on either day.
By Sunday, there is still uncertainty with the models about a potential storm, though they are in agreement that the storm will stay well to the east of the area. Yesterday's GFS runs, which showed a blizzard for the area, have since trended east, with today's westernmost model run being the 12z GFS bringing at least 3-6 inches of snow to the immediate NYC area, nothing in comparison to yesterday's runs which had over a foot of snow for NYC.
Despite this consistency, the models, however, are still inconsistent with the development of the storm, which is leading to each one showing a different track. It may take several days until the models become consistent with this, and once they do, they will likely reach an agreement with the storm track. At this time, it appears that the best chance of a snowstorm could be in central/eastern New England and Maine, but this is still subject to change. Even though a west trend with the models is still possible, at this time it is unlikely that we see the western solutions that the GFS model had yesterday, meaning that the best chance of snow from this storm would likely be south and east of NYC. Stay tuned for more details tomorrow, as well as a scenario map.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will be a partly cloudy day across the area with a west wind expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and in the lower to mid 30s for the rest of the area.
An Alberta clipper will bring the first significant snowfall of the winter to Virginia, where 4 to 8 inches of snow are expected in parts of the southern and central parts of the state, and while the storm will stay south of NYC for the main part, a few flurries south of NYC are possible on Thursday night.
Friday - Monday: Warmer, Dry First, Followed By Storm Potential
Friday and Saturday are both expected to be warmer as the air mass will not be as cold, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across most of the area. The immediate NYC area may even reach the 40 degree mark on either day.
By Sunday, there is still uncertainty with the models about a potential storm, though they are in agreement that the storm will stay well to the east of the area. Yesterday's GFS runs, which showed a blizzard for the area, have since trended east, with today's westernmost model run being the 12z GFS bringing at least 3-6 inches of snow to the immediate NYC area, nothing in comparison to yesterday's runs which had over a foot of snow for NYC.
Despite this consistency, the models, however, are still inconsistent with the development of the storm, which is leading to each one showing a different track. It may take several days until the models become consistent with this, and once they do, they will likely reach an agreement with the storm track. At this time, it appears that the best chance of a snowstorm could be in central/eastern New England and Maine, but this is still subject to change. Even though a west trend with the models is still possible, at this time it is unlikely that we see the western solutions that the GFS model had yesterday, meaning that the best chance of snow from this storm would likely be south and east of NYC. Stay tuned for more details tomorrow, as well as a scenario map.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Dec 14: Cold Continues, Sunday Storm Update
Notes:
- The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the area through Sunday.
- A new poll was opened for the potential Sunday-Monday storm. Please vote your thoughts on the poll, which will close on Friday.
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Yesterday in the evening hours, a light snow squall developed across the NYC area, but quickly grew in size and intensity to become a large area of moderate to locally heavy snow covering almost all of the NYC area. As a result of this, I issued a Light Snow Alert with the potential of up to 1/2 inch of snow, however the snow continued to persist and intensify despite the expectations, and the result was widespread amounts near or over 1 inch for the central and eastern parts of the area, with reports from Long Island of over 2 inches of snow.
Today was a very cold and breezy day, with wind chills frequently in the single digits and high temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s inland, lower to mid 20s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 20s in Long Island/S CT, making it likely one of the coldest days of the winter. Temperatures are still going to be cold tomorrow but will slightly warm up, with temperatures returning to slightly below average levels by Thursday and Friday. By Sunday, however, uncertainty increases as an expected storm may either stay out to sea, or affect the area with snow.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will be another cold and mostly cloudy day but with slightly warmer high temperatures. Wind chills in the single digits are expected across the area with a breezy west wind, and sub-zero wind chills are possible once again inland tomorrow morning. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s inland and in the mid to upper 20s for the rest of the area.
Temperatures tomorrow night will be cold once again, with 10s away from NYC, however they will not be as cold as tonight will be, with lows in the upper single digits possible in the interior tonight.
Thursday - Saturday: Warming Up, Dry, Then Storm Possible On Sunday
Thursday will bring slightly warmer conditions as a weak low pressure passes to the south of the area and warming 850 mb temperatures, with high temperatures as a result in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area. Friday will bring even warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies, with temperatures potentially reaching the 40 degree mark in NYC. Saturday will bring similar conditions, however a potential storm on Sunday may change that.
For Sunday, the models have changed little from yesterday, with the GFS model still showing a blizzard for the area with over a foot of snow, and the ECMWF/GGEM models staying out to sea with nothing or only light snow for NYC.
The models are already about to enter the 100 hour range, when they usually start locking onto a specific storm track. Given the set up, this storm is very unlikely to track close enough to the coast or inland to bring rain to the area, but the model consensus at this time is for a suppressed storm, or the southern track shown in the map to the left. It is a good possibility that the storm stays OTS, and will become more likely if the models tomorrow remain consistent with that solution, however it is also possible that the storm could trend more west. If the storm trends west, a potentially significant snowstorm may be in store for the region including NYC, however if the model consensus stays east, the storm would only brush the southern Mid Atlantic with some snow and go out to sea.
At this time, I went with a chance of snow in my 5-Day Forecast, but that is a low confidence forecast and is subject to change. Over the next 2 days, there will likely get a better idea of the potential scenario, so stay tuned for more details on this storm and how it may affect the area.
- The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the area through Sunday.
- A new poll was opened for the potential Sunday-Monday storm. Please vote your thoughts on the poll, which will close on Friday.
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Yesterday in the evening hours, a light snow squall developed across the NYC area, but quickly grew in size and intensity to become a large area of moderate to locally heavy snow covering almost all of the NYC area. As a result of this, I issued a Light Snow Alert with the potential of up to 1/2 inch of snow, however the snow continued to persist and intensify despite the expectations, and the result was widespread amounts near or over 1 inch for the central and eastern parts of the area, with reports from Long Island of over 2 inches of snow.
Today was a very cold and breezy day, with wind chills frequently in the single digits and high temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s inland, lower to mid 20s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 20s in Long Island/S CT, making it likely one of the coldest days of the winter. Temperatures are still going to be cold tomorrow but will slightly warm up, with temperatures returning to slightly below average levels by Thursday and Friday. By Sunday, however, uncertainty increases as an expected storm may either stay out to sea, or affect the area with snow.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will be another cold and mostly cloudy day but with slightly warmer high temperatures. Wind chills in the single digits are expected across the area with a breezy west wind, and sub-zero wind chills are possible once again inland tomorrow morning. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s inland and in the mid to upper 20s for the rest of the area.Temperatures tomorrow night will be cold once again, with 10s away from NYC, however they will not be as cold as tonight will be, with lows in the upper single digits possible in the interior tonight.
Thursday - Saturday: Warming Up, Dry, Then Storm Possible On Sunday
Thursday will bring slightly warmer conditions as a weak low pressure passes to the south of the area and warming 850 mb temperatures, with high temperatures as a result in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area. Friday will bring even warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies, with temperatures potentially reaching the 40 degree mark in NYC. Saturday will bring similar conditions, however a potential storm on Sunday may change that.
For Sunday, the models have changed little from yesterday, with the GFS model still showing a blizzard for the area with over a foot of snow, and the ECMWF/GGEM models staying out to sea with nothing or only light snow for NYC.The models are already about to enter the 100 hour range, when they usually start locking onto a specific storm track. Given the set up, this storm is very unlikely to track close enough to the coast or inland to bring rain to the area, but the model consensus at this time is for a suppressed storm, or the southern track shown in the map to the left. It is a good possibility that the storm stays OTS, and will become more likely if the models tomorrow remain consistent with that solution, however it is also possible that the storm could trend more west. If the storm trends west, a potentially significant snowstorm may be in store for the region including NYC, however if the model consensus stays east, the storm would only brush the southern Mid Atlantic with some snow and go out to sea.
At this time, I went with a chance of snow in my 5-Day Forecast, but that is a low confidence forecast and is subject to change. Over the next 2 days, there will likely get a better idea of the potential scenario, so stay tuned for more details on this storm and how it may affect the area.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Dec 13: Snow Tonight, Sunday Storm Potential
As posted this evening, an unexpected band of moderate snow developed near NYC and quickly expanded and intensified to cover most of the area with a steady light to moderate snow. While most places are currently with a dusting, some places may end up with as much as 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow if the snow is heavy enough. The heaviest snow totals are possible in Long Island and southern Connecticut, where a large snow band from the Atlantic Ocean is moving inland.
Meanwhile, much colder air is currently moving into the region, which will produce very cold temperatures for tomorrow, with high temperatures struggling into the 20s and wind chills in the single digits tomorrow morning. The cold will moderate afterwards with a snowstorm passing to the south of NYC on Thursday, but by the weekend another storm may be possible for the area.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will be a mainly cloudy day with a breezy northwest wind. High temperatures will be in the lower 20s inland, lower to upper 20s in the immediate NYC area, and in the upper 20s for Long Island/S CT. Isolated snow showers are expected, however they will not be as widespread or as heavy as those of tonight.
Due to the windy conditions combined with the cold temperatures, very cold wind chills are expected in the area tomorrow, as low as the single digits in the immediate NYC area, and sub-zero wind chills are possible for the northwestern parts of the area.
Wednesday - Friday: Moderating Cold, Snowstorm South Of NYC
On Wednesday, the cold will moderate with less cloud cover expected, however highs will still be chilly, in the mid to upper 20s inland and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for the rest of the area. A breezy WNW wind is expected, and wind chills in the morning will once again reach the single digits across parts of, if not most of the area.
For Thursday, a weak low pressure will bring a light accumulating snow event south of the area, mainly focusing on Virginia, however partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies are still expected, with slightly warmer temperatures.
Friday will bring warmer temperatures, with highs potentially reaching the 40 degree mark again in NYC, with Saturday bringing bringing similar conditions, however a potentially interesting set up is on the way for Sunday.
Sunday - Monday: Potential Coastal Storm?
Yesterday, I mentioned the potential of a storm affecting the region on Sunday and Monday. The models have picked up on this possibility, with the GFS model showing near or over a foot of snow for the area 3 out of 4 of its runs today. The ECMWF and GGEM models are further east, but there is still time for trending. Due to the set up, this storm is unlikely to track inland, and while there is still uncertainty and time left for things to change, at this time I'd give a storm track range from a track right along the coast to a storm track well offshore. If the solution in between verifies, the area may see snow, with potentially significant amounts.
Stay tuned for more details on this potential storm and how it may affect the area.
Meanwhile, much colder air is currently moving into the region, which will produce very cold temperatures for tomorrow, with high temperatures struggling into the 20s and wind chills in the single digits tomorrow morning. The cold will moderate afterwards with a snowstorm passing to the south of NYC on Thursday, but by the weekend another storm may be possible for the area.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will be a mainly cloudy day with a breezy northwest wind. High temperatures will be in the lower 20s inland, lower to upper 20s in the immediate NYC area, and in the upper 20s for Long Island/S CT. Isolated snow showers are expected, however they will not be as widespread or as heavy as those of tonight.Due to the windy conditions combined with the cold temperatures, very cold wind chills are expected in the area tomorrow, as low as the single digits in the immediate NYC area, and sub-zero wind chills are possible for the northwestern parts of the area.
Wednesday - Friday: Moderating Cold, Snowstorm South Of NYC
On Wednesday, the cold will moderate with less cloud cover expected, however highs will still be chilly, in the mid to upper 20s inland and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for the rest of the area. A breezy WNW wind is expected, and wind chills in the morning will once again reach the single digits across parts of, if not most of the area.
For Thursday, a weak low pressure will bring a light accumulating snow event south of the area, mainly focusing on Virginia, however partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies are still expected, with slightly warmer temperatures.
Friday will bring warmer temperatures, with highs potentially reaching the 40 degree mark again in NYC, with Saturday bringing bringing similar conditions, however a potentially interesting set up is on the way for Sunday.
Sunday - Monday: Potential Coastal Storm?
Yesterday, I mentioned the potential of a storm affecting the region on Sunday and Monday. The models have picked up on this possibility, with the GFS model showing near or over a foot of snow for the area 3 out of 4 of its runs today. The ECMWF and GGEM models are further east, but there is still time for trending. Due to the set up, this storm is unlikely to track inland, and while there is still uncertainty and time left for things to change, at this time I'd give a storm track range from a track right along the coast to a storm track well offshore. If the solution in between verifies, the area may see snow, with potentially significant amounts.
Stay tuned for more details on this potential storm and how it may affect the area.
Dec 13 Evening: Snow Squall In NYC
8:58 PM: The snow has picked up in intensity for the area, and continues to expand. As a result, I issued a Light Snow Alert for most of the area, in effect through late tonight. While a general dusting is expected, places that see heavier snow could see a coating to potentially 1/4 inch of snow.As the source of snow is shifting east, light to occasionally moderate snow will continue falling across SE NY and NE NJ, however locally heavier bands of snow are forming and moving into western Long Island and SW Connecticut, which will continue to intensify and expand as they move NE while spreading east.
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7:15 PM: A snow squall recently developed in NYC over the last 15 minutes, and is currently intensifying and expanding, affecting all of NYC and the immediate suburbs. As this is only a new squall, exactly how much snow falls cannot be determined yet, as well as how long the snow lasts, but a dusting of snow is expected where snow falls with the potential of a coating of snow, and even up to 1/4 inch of snow in isolated places cannot be ruled out if the snow is heavy enough and lasts long enough.
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