July 3, 2012: Storms Tonight, Then Heat Returns

Forecast Highlights:


- Scattered storms tonight; mostly dry/hot 4th of July
- Heat lasts through Saturday with mid-upper 90s
- Cooler for next week, but no significant cool down


-----------------------------------------------------

Yesterday's Observations:

Monday (July 2nd) had colder temperatures as a cooler air mass briefly moved into the region, which still kept temperatures warm but ended the heat wave for most of the area except for Newark, which barely extended the heat wave with a high of 91 degrees. Interior areas (NW NJ, interior SE NY) had highs generally in the mid 80s, the immediate NYC area reached the upper 80s to lower 90s, and Long Island/S CT reached the mid to upper 80s, verifying the temperature outlook from Sunday (July 1st).


Today's Observations:

Today (July 3rd) had a warmer air mass move into the region, bringing temperatures back into the 90s for parts of the area while further extending the heat wave in Newark. Highs reached the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, lower to mid 90s in most of the immediate NYC area, and the mid to upper 80s in Long Island/S CT. Newark was the hottest station in the area with 95 degrees.

Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s range from Wednesday through Saturday, with scattered thunderstorms expected late tonight. After a cold front moves through on Saturday with scattered thunderstorms, a cooler air mass will move into the region but with no significant cool down expected.


Wednesday's Outlook:


As of 12 AM, there is an area of weakening storms in western PA that will stay south of the area. Most storm activity tonight into Wednesday morning will stay south and north of the area, although scattered thunderstorms are still expected for later tonight into the morning hours, mostly staying below severe levels. Partly sunny skies and mostly dry conditions are expected for the afternoon/evening hours with temperatures warming up into the lower to mid 90s from NYC and further north/west and the mid 80s to lower 90s in Long Island/S CT. Temperatures may pass 95 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area. There is a risk of an isolated storm in the late afternoon/evening hours, but no widespread storm activity is expected.


Thursday - Saturday: Still Hot, Mostly Dry


Following the cold front on Wednesday, an upper level low will develop over New England, keeping the area near the edge of the heat while the core of the heat is still kept to the west towards the Ohio Valley. Temperatures for both Thursday and Friday are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s from NYC and further northwest; for Long Island/S CT, Thursday will be slightly warmer with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s except for the eastern coastal areas, with Friday slightly cooling down into the mid to upper 80s, approaching 90 degrees away from the coast and closer to NYC and the lower 80s closer to the immediate coast, especially further east.

A cold front will move through the region on Saturday with a brief surge of heat ahead of it. There is still some slight uncertainty regarding exactly how hot it gets as the timing of the front is still a bit uncertain, with the GFS quickly bringing the front through while the ECM is slower. There is also the question of how much influence the ULL over New England in the late week has. Regardless of these uncertainties, temperatures will get hot again, with lower to mid 90s expected for most of the area, approaching the upper 90s in the immediate NYC area and staying below 90 in coastal areas, especially further east. Some storms are possible with the cold front, although at this time there does not appear to be any widespread storm outbreak associated with this cold front.


Following the cold front, colder temperatures will return into the region for early-mid next week as a larger trough develops over SE Canada with ridging building into Greenland. No significant cool down is expected, however, with temperatures simply cooling down into the 80s for most places, perhaps dropping below 80 degrees for coastal areas. The outlook for the first half of next week is generally dry. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range outlook.