July 21, 2012: Storms Return For Monday

The blog will not be updated on Sunday, July 22. The next update will be posted on Monday, July 23.


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Forecast Highlights:


- Scattered storms expected for Monday, lower risk for Tuesday
- Temperatures remain in 80s for most of week, much closer to average
- Additional rain or storms likely by Friday and/or next weekend


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Today's Observations:

Following yesterday's chilly rain, with temperatures only in the 60s during the day across the area, warmer temperatures were observed today although still ending up below average, peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further north/west and in the mid to upper 70s in Long Island and southern CT. Temperatures will slightly warm up over the next few days ahead of a cold front producing scattered shower/storms on Monday; although a brief cool down is expected in the mid week, additional rain and storms are likely to return by Friday and/or next weekend.


Sunday - Tuesday: Warmer, Some Storms


Partly sunny skies are expected again for Sunday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 70s to lower 80s for most of long Island/S CT. As a cold front approaches the region, scattered thunderstorms are expected for Monday with highs similar to those of Sunday, perhaps a bit warmer if there are more breaks in the cloud cover and less rain. Scattered storms are expected, meaning that not everyone in the area will be seeing rain, and probability of severe weather is low at this time. The timing of the cold front passage is unfavorable for heat/storms on Tuesday, as it is already expected to be southeast of the area by the afternoon hours, although temperatures are still likely to warm up into at least the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further north/west with slightly cooler temperatures in Long Island/S CT with the 850mb temperatures warm enough to support these temperatures.


Wednesday - Next Weekend: Additional Rain Likely


Wednesday is expected to be dry and mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 80s across the area, perhaps slightly passing 85 degrees in the immediate NYC area. By the second half of Thursday into Friday, however, the models have much more differences, as the CMC and some of today's GFS runs show a scenario with some similarities to yesterday's event, with a low pressure south of the area with cloudy skies and a chilly rain affecting the area. The ECM keeps the heavier rain a bit further north with temperatures reaching at least the lower 80s for parts of the area, while other GFS runs take the low pressure well to the north, with temperatures staying in the 80s along with showers and thunderstorms. As with yesterday's event, there is still uncertainty with the forecast as the timing and location of the low pressure are subject to change, although there is a high probability of rain affecting at least parts of the area late on Thursday into Friday and perhaps early Saturday, with temperatures more likely to end up near-below average as opposed to above average. Stay tuned for more information on the late week storm outlook. The outlook for the weekend is uncertain as well due to each model handling the late week event differently, although a trough is more likely to end up affecting the region than a ridge, with no additional strong heat likely at this time.