July 11, 2012: Above Average Temps Continue

The blog will not be updated on Thursday, July 12. The next update will be posted on Friday.


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Forecast Highlights:


- Warmth gradually builds in; some 90s possible Thurs-Sat
- Thunderstorms possible for Sunday, potentially heavy
- Additional heat, humidity expected for next week


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Today's Observations:

Today ended up once again similar to yesterday with little changes in the set up across the region, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and the lower to mid 80s in Long Island/S CT. A few isolated storms popped up near Sussex/West Passaic counties, although the rest of the area was dry.

Temperatures will slowly warm up, with more widespread mid-upper 80s and some lower 90s expected between Thursday and Saturday. As the Bermuda high shifts west, widespread moisture and humidity are expected starting Sunday, with scattered storms, some heavy, likely on Sunday. More widespread low-mid 90s are expected for next week; although temperatures will not be as hot as they were last week, the humidity will result in higher heat index values.


Thursday's Outlook:


Temperatures will begin to slowly warm up on Thursday with slightly warmer 850mb temperatures. Mostly sunny skies are expected with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s from NYC and further north/west, mid to locally upper 80s in southern CT, and the lower to mid 80s in Long Island. Parts of NE NJ may reach and/or slightly exceed 90 degrees.


Friday - Weekend: Still Warm; Stormy Sunday Possible


As 850mb temperatures continue to slightly warm up along with mostly sunny skies, Friday is expected to be another warm day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further north/west and the mid to upper 80s in Long Island/S CT, staying below 85 degrees near the immediate coast especially further east. The warmest temperatures are expected near NE NJ. There is slight uncertainty for Saturday as some models bring in the rain faster, with cooler temperatures in the lower 80s in NYC, while others such as the NAM keep the rain further west with warmer temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For now, I'm siding closer to the warmer NAM, with highs mostly in the lower 90s from NYC and further north/west, approaching 95 degrees near NE NJ and possibly staying a bit under 90 further inland, with Long Island/S CT in the mid to upper 80s, approaching 90 degrees closer to NYC. Partly cloudy skies are expected with a risk of isolated storms late, especially into the overnight hours.

By Sunday, the highest precipitable water values will move through the area. The GFS and ECM models show widespread rain, locally heavy, while the NAM and CMC are somewhat drier and thus warmer. The coverage area of storms is still a bit uncertain; at this time, at least scattered storms are expected on Sunday for parts of the area, although storms will easily be capable of producing heavy rain. Due to the cloud cover/storms, I went with slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday, reaching the mid to upper 80s across the area, although it is possible temperatures may be revised a bit upwards should the drier outcome verify.


Next Week: Hot, More Humid


Following Sunday's scattered storm activity, Monday and Tuesday are expected to have partly sunny skies with highs reaching the lower 90s for most places north/west of NYC, possibly approaching 95 degrees in NE NJ if there's enough sunshine, with mid to upper 80s in most of Long Island/S CT and some lower 90s. Isolated storms may be possible on both days but at this time there does not appear to be any widespread heavy rain risk. More widespread humidity is expected as a result of the Bermuda high, however, with heat index values possibly reaching the mid-upper 90s.

By Wednesday and Thursday, with a trough over SE Canada failing to drop into the region, warmer 850mb temperatures will move into the region from the west, reaching at least 20C, possibly a bit higher. Temperatures are likely to warm up with widespread lower to mid 90s from NYC and further north/west and mid 80s to lower9 90s in Long Island/S CT. The exact extent of the heat is still a bit uncertain, although in the warmer case scenario the potential is there for temperatures to reach the upper 90s at least once in NE NJ. Humid conditions are expected again, which will result in the potential for heat index values to end up close to 100 degrees. The longer range outlook becomes more uncertain; the possibility is there for a cold front to affect the area late next week, although there does not appear to be any large scale relief from the above average temperatures on the way through the 7-10 day range.