After the very warm temperatures last week, which can actually be considered the first heat wave of the year as temperatures went over 90 degrees for 3 consecutive days in parts of the area, this week should be much more comfortable than last week, with high temperatures in the 70s and lower humidity. The week should also start out dry. There are indications, however, that more heat and storms may return starting next weekend.
Yesterday's Storms: Why The Forecast Failed
Last week's severe weather events were unusually difficult to forecast. In the majority of the cases, despite the models indicating at least a slight risk for severe weather, there were very little, if any storms. In some cases, some hints on the models were shown that would lead to less severe weather than expected. In the other case, despite the models showing an unusually favorable set up for what could have been a very active day yesterday, the forecast ended up failing.
Despite the line seeming organized in Pennsylvania, thunderstorms ended up intensifying more in New England, as well as in the central Mid Atlantic, which significantly weakened the storms in between, which happened to be heading towards our area. In addition, the highest parameters shifted towards New England, and with the timing of the day being more supportive for New England than our area, that is where the majority of the severe weather ended up taking place.
Busts in severe weather are difficult to forecast and are usually only caught in the shorter range, which is why it is always important to keep an eye on the current observations, as even the days with the highest risk for severe weather may end up failing due to a last minute change.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Like today, tomorrow should be another sunny and comfortable day. Tomorrow morning should be unusually chilly, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s inland, in the lower to mid 50s for the NYC suburbs, in the mid to upper 50s for NYC, and in the lower to mid 50s for Long Island and southern CT. High temperatures should rise into the lower to mid 70s for the interior, S CT and Long Island, with the immediate NYC area in the mid 70s.
The region should also be mainly dry, with the only area seeing rain being New England. This is going to change by Wednesday, however, as the next storm approaches the area.
Mid To Late Week: Wet, Chilly
By Wednesday, the next storm should approach the area. The model solution were too suppressed at first, with the 00z GFS bringing the heaviest rain to southern Virginia, however the models have trended north since then, keeping our area in the northern edge of the moderate rainfall amounts. Wednesday should be slightly colder than tomorrow, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area except for the western parts of the area, which should be in the mid to upper 60s. Light to moderate rain should start in the afternoon, bringing up to 1/4 inch of rain.
For Wednesday Night, light to moderate periods of rain and thunderstorms are expected, which should bring additional rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch of rain. This should bring the storm total to 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain. Thursday should be mostly cloudy with an isolated shower or two ending in the morning, with high temperatures rising into the lower 70s except for Long Island and SE Connecticut, which should stay in the upper 60s due to cloud cover and rain.
As a warmer air mass to our southwest should begin to approach the area, Friday should be warmer, with high temperatures returning into the mid to upper 70s, along with mainly sunny skies.
Weekend To Early Next Week Outlook
By this weekend, things should get more interesting. The warmer air mass should be able to push into the area on Saturday, bringing warmer temperatures with high temperatures returning into the 80s, which is where they should be by this time of the year. Sunday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. There is uncertainty with the extent of the warmth, which would also determine how warm Monday gets, though there is the potential for high temperatures to reach the lower 90s again.
Meanwhile, there may also be a chance for thunderstorms. As the next cold front should approach, along with it comes the potential for thunderstorms early next week. As I previously mentioned, there is still some uncertainty with this time period, so it's uncertain when the best chance for thunderstorms would be, though the possibility for storms early next week is there.
I was quite surprised to see how the NWS forecast failed. and I thought we can count on them for weather forecasting.
ReplyDeleteThe forecast failed mainly due to a last minute change in the set up that significantly reduced the severe weather threat. It's not completely the NWS' fault, as even the models consistently showed a very favorable set up, otherwise I wouldn't have issued a moderate severe weather risk. This goes on to show that last minute observations can be very important.
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