June 15: Heat Returns This Weekend, Next Week

Today was a very nice day, with mainly sunny skies and high temperatures rising into the 70s and lower 80s. This is going to change, however, with a disturbance that should affect the area tomorrow evening and throughout the overnight hours.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is not going to be anywhere near as nice as today. With cloud cover ahead of a storm, high temperatures aren't going to warm up too much, reaching the mid to upper 70s for the immediate NYC area and in the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

The storm is also going to bring the risk of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Due to the lack of supportive parameters, there is only the possibility of isolated strong storms for Virginia/Maryland extending up to southern Pennsylvania/NJ that would qualify for a 5-10% severe weather risk. There should be some thunderstorms around the area as well, bringing rainfall amounts up to 1/4 inch, locally higher.

Late Week And Weekend: Heat Returns, So Does Uncertainty

By Thursday, the storm should exit the area, leaving us with partly sunny skies, though high temperatures are going to be on the rise, reaching the lower 80s for the immediate NYC area and the upper 70s inland. Friday is going to continue warming up, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s.

By Saturday, uncertainty begins to return once again. Very warm temperatures are expected, but the question is the location of the 850 mb temperatures, which varies from placing us in the warmer temperatures to having the warmest temperatures to our west. At this time, I am expecting Saturday's high temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, though as there is uncertainty, it is possible that Saturday is warmer (lower to mid 90s) and Sunday is colder, or Saturday is slightly colder and Sunday sees high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.

A weak cold front then approaches on Sunday, however it should considerably weaken by the time that it reaches the area, and with a colder air mass significantly weakening and staying well to our north, Sunday is expected to remain very warm, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, though as I said above, there is still uncertainty on the day that the warmth peaks.
Next Week Thoughts

For early next week, significant uncertainty returns on the models, varying from placing our area under a persistent warm air mass and temperatures staying in the upper 80s to lower 90s, to bringing a trough and temperatures back into the 70s and 80s. Looking at the pattern in place, however, I would lean towards the warmer scenario at this time.

The troughs lately are not as effective as they used to be earlier in the year and are further north, and only have the greatest effects in the Northeast, where below average temperatures have been found. In our area, they only remain near to slightly above average, and in the central and southern Mid Atlantic, above average temperatures continue to persist. As a La Nina continues to develop, and a more established high pressure forms, I would expect this to continue to be the case, and while there will be some colder days and some warmer days, this warm summer pattern may be here to stay.