June 14: Warm Week, Hot Weekend

This week started on a cloudy note, as cloudy skies with temperatures in the 70s and 80s were observed today, along with a little rain. Last weekend was relatively active in some places, as parts of Orange County, NY and Connecticut ended up with a flash flood warning on Saturday night due to the heavy thunderstorms, which dumped up to 2 inches of rain in a few places. Yesterday did bring some thunderstorms to the area, even bringing very heavy rain for western NJ and eastern PA, though as expected, the storms stayed below severe levels.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

If you enjoy dry, sunny and comfortable weather, enjoy tomorrow, because it will be the last of these types of days for a while. With a high pressure in control, the clouds will finally exit, with partly sunny skies in place and temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The coast and southern CT should be the exception to this, with high temperatures there in the mid to upper 70s.

Meanwhile, the western parts of the Mid Atlantic should be seeing cloudy skies as the next disturbance approaches from the west. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms for western Pennsylvania, western Virginia, and West Virginia. This disturbance is later going to approach our area, bringing clouds and rain once again by Wednesday.

Wednesday And Thursday: Stormy Conditions Return

As the next disturbance approaches the area, clouds are going to return again by Wednesday morning. Temperatures are expected to be steady in the mid to upper 60s throughout the morning hours, starting to slowly rise by the early afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms should be during the evening hours, when up to 1/4 inch of rain is possible in some places. The temperatures should steadily rise through the evening and early overnight hours as the stalled front to our south becomes a warm front and moves through the area, bringing temperatures to peak in the mid to possibly upper 70s.

By Thursday, the storm should exit the area, but there will be little change in the temperatures despite a slightly colder air mass. High temperatures should actually warm up, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s again, with the warmest temperatures in the immediate NYC area.

Friday And Next Weekend: Heat, Humidity Return

By Friday, a much warmer air mass ahead of the next storm well to our west should begin to enter the area. With a high pressure in place and mainly sunny skies, temperatures are going to be able to quickly rise into the mid to upper 80s on Friday away from the coast.

Saturday is currently expected to be the warmest day. With 850 mb temperatures between 18-20c, temperatures are going to be able to rise into the 90s across most of the area, with some places possibly reaching the mid 90s.

By Sunday, there is some uncertainty on what happens, as the GFS is slower in bringing the next cold front through, actually keeping Sunday's highs in the 90s. The other models, such as the GGEM and ECMWF, however, bring the next cold front through faster, with colder temperatures for Sunday. At this time, I decided to lean towards the slightly slower solution, which would lead to high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday, if not slightly warmer.

Afterwards, temperatures should slightly cool down by early next week, however there are some signs that we may be looking at the return of heat by late next week. The ECMWF and GFS have been showing a much warmer pattern settling in by the longer range, and while this is still uncertain, it is something to keep an eye on.