As this weekend was, expect tomorrow and Wednesday to remain dry. The temperatures should be mild, however they should be colder than today, which had temperatures near or even over 60 degrees in parts of the area. The updated short term forecast shows temperatures staying in the 50s through the first half of the week, with some places possibly reaching the upper 50s.
Late Week And Early Weekend: Flooding Rainstorm Possible
As I said in my update on Tuesday, we are looking at a rainstorm for the late week. However, at this time it appears that we are looking at a lot of rain, with flooding possible across the area. The latest GFS model runs have indicated over 3 inches of rain, and in some cases, as much as 5-6 inches in the area. These numbers, while very high, are actually possible in isolated areas, as we are looking at a long duration rain event with rain, heavy at times.
The current forecast expects light rain to start around Thursday afternoon, and slowly increase in intensity. By at least Friday morning, a steady light to moderate rain should develop. This rain will continue through the afternoon hours, and by the evening, an area of heavy rain approaches. The heaviest rain could impact the area from Friday night to Saturday morning, as the GFS and NOGAPS models show, though there is still uncertainty on the timing of the heaviest rain. By the time that the storm is over on Sunday, rainfall amounts could generally end up in the 1 to 3 inch range, though this number can still change.
Below is a scenario map of where I think the heaviest rain area could end up, as well as a small area of frozen precipitation in northern New England. Stay tuned for more updates on this storm.
Very nice writeup, nice map as well!
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