Mar 27: Heavy Rain And Flooding Problems Return

After a very cold morning, with temperatures dropping into the 20s across most of the area, and even some 10s in the northernmost parts of the area, temperatures should warm up through the afternoon, howevere today will still be chilly, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.

Tonight, while still chilly, won't be as cold as last night, with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s for the immediate NYC area, in the mid to upper 20s further north, and in the lower to mid 20s in the northwestern areas. Tomorrow should be warmer than today, with highs in the lower 50s, and increasing clouds through the day.

Monday And Tuesday Heavy Rain Potential (Updated in the afternoon)

When updating the forecast on Saturday afternoon, I made some revisions to the short term forecast, including extending the rain into Tuesday and adding heavy rain on Monday night. Heavy rain will continue into Tuesday morning, which will only extend the duration of the rain event, making any flooding problems even worse.

The storm is expected to start on Sunday night, with light to moderate rain starting in the overnight hours. Low temperatures will be steady at first in the mid to upper 40s across the area, and are expected to rise into the lower 50s by Monday morning. On Monday, heavy rain will develop and is expected to affect the area during the day, producing rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with some higher amounts.

From the latest model runs, it seems that there won't be a break in the rain on Monday night, but the heavy rain should continue. There may be a break in the heavy rain on Monday evening, though it is expected to resume afterwards, after another area of heavy rain moves onshore as the low pressure intensifies offshore. As a result, heavy rain redevelops overnight on Monday, with an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain and locally higher amounts. As the low pressure approaches on Monday night, strong winds should become an issue once again, with gusts up to 40-50 mph possible.

On Tuesday, the rain may still be moderate to heavy in the morning, though lighter rain should fall by the afternoon hours. An additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is possible, with the highest rain amounts north and east of New York City. The windy conditions are expected to continue through the day, ending on Tuesday night. Any remaining rain showers should end by Wednesday morning, with clearing skies on Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday will be colder, in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area, with warmer temperatures returning on Wednesday, in the mid to upper 50s.

This storm is expected to have a lot of moisture involved, which will help produce heavy rain amounts. By the time that the storm ends on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, at least 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected, with locally higher amounts. Flooding is expected to be a problem once again for areas that were hit hard with flooding in the previous storms. Winds may also become a problem once again, with wind gusts up to 40-50 mph possible at this time.




Very Warm Temperatures For Next Weekend

After the storm exits on Wednesday, a warm air mass is expected to enter the area. Along with it, temperatures are expected to quickly warm up during the late week. By Thursday, high temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, already reaching the lower to mid 70s by Friday. Temperatures continue to warm up even beyond that, reaching near 80 degrees by Saturday, which is the average high temperature in early June! Temperatures are likely to reach at least the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday, though afterwards the temperatures should cool down a little.