Mar 23: Heavy Rain Potential Next Week

After what was a dry week followed by heavy rain and thunderstorms last night, the area has once again entered a stormy pattern, with more rain to come. However, the possible end of the stormy pattern is in sight, as well as possibilities of what could happen after this stormy pattern.

Friday's Storm: Light To Moderate Rain

After dry conditions briefly return this week, with temperatures approaching 60 degrees once again, the next storm will impact the area on Friday, however it is not expected to produce as much rain as the previous storms have produced. We are looking at a relatively weak storm that produces a wide area of moderate rain from the Ohio Valley towards the area and the southern Northeast. This storm is going to run into colder air on Friday, which will result in the storm being pushed out to sea from that point. This will produce a relatively chilly rain on Friday, with a light snow mixing with the rain for the interior Northeast, followed by clearing conditions on Friday night as a cold air mass moves in. Some flakes might be possible in the north and western parts of the area at the end before the storm ends, however no accumulation is expected.

At this time, there is still some uncertainty on the northern end of the precipitation area, though the expectation at this time is for at least 1/2 inch of rain on Friday, with locally higher amounts of 3/4 to 1 inch.

Below is my rain map for this storm, with the uncertainty area being the northern extent of the storm.



Weekend Forecast: Dry And Chilly

As a colder air mass moves in, temperatures will briefly return to below average levels. Saturday is expected to be the coldest day, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s across the area, and low temperatures in the 20s away from the coast. The interior areas further north and west might have slightly colder temperatures. These colder conditions are relatively brief, as Sunday will already have warmer temperatures, with 50s once again returning by Monday.

Heavy Rain Possible Monday To Tuesday

After a dry and chilly weekend, the temperatures continue to warm up in the early week and may reach the mid 50s, however these dry conditions are only short as the next storm approaches, with the possibility of heavy rain returning once again.

There is still some uncertainty with the storm track, whether it is a coastal storm or a storm that tracks in the interior, north and west of the area. While at this time, it is more likely that the storm would track further north and west, due to the uncertainty, a coastal storm can't be ruled out yet, though it would still probably bring heavy rain to the area, just with an additional wet snow possibility for the interior Northeast.

At this time, we are looking at the storm to begin on Monday and continue through Tuesday, with some uncertainty about the exact timing of the storm. Heavy rain is possible out of this storm, with flooding possibilities potentially returning once again if widespread heavy rain does happen.

After The Stormy Pattern: What Happens Next?

From what appears to be the case as of now, the stormy pattern is likely to temporarily end after the early week storm. However, instead of seeing another cold air mass dropping out of canada, the models have been consistently showing much warmer conditions developing, with a ridge extending towards the area, which could bring our first major warm up since this past weekend for the start of April. There is still uncertainty on this time period, so the confidence of this forecast as of now is still relatively low, but the potential is there for above to possibly well above average temperatures if the current model solution verify.