Mar 13: Short Term Storm Updates

Below are some updates and observations about the storm:

1. Light to moderate rain is currently falling over the area, with rain totals from as little as 1/4 inch to as much as over 1 inch in the heavier bands. The rain should get lighter by at least 10 AM to 12 PM, followed by the heavy rain starting in the afternoon hours. The area should end up with at least 3 to 4 inches of rain by the end of the storm, with amounts locally as high as 5 inches.

2. Windy conditions are also a concern throughout today. Windy conditions already started last night, and are expected to continue and intensify later today and tonight. Closer to the coast and in the NYC area, winds of 20-30 mph are expected. Wind gusts should occasionally reach 40-50 mph, especially near the coast.

3. Light rain is starting to fall in the Northeast, in places such as Albany and Massachusetts. The temperatures there are close to freezing, but are expected to rise some more. While some occasional snow/sleet is possible in the highest elevations throughout the storm, by the end of the storm, there should be wet snow developing in the higher elevations, accumulating up to 3 inches.

4. While the area should see heavy rain during the storm, non-accumulating light snow is possible in the higher elevations of NW NJ and interior SE NY at the end of the storm, which at this time, I added a mention of light snow to the short term forecast.


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I made some revisions to my first rain map, including shifting the 3.5+ inch area further north and east, as well as moving the northern end of the precipitation slightly further south.

For the interior areas, I have an updated snow map. While there could be some heavy snow in places that do see snow, the temperatures are still mainly near-slightly above freezing, and as a result, it would be a wet snow with less than 10:1 ratios (meaning less than 10 inches of snow for every inch of liquid precipitation), that has a hard time accumulating on surfaces.

Afternoon Update: I decided to raise the forecast snow amounts, with 1-3 inches in the light blue area, and 3-6 inches in the dark blue area. The small area in western Pennsylvania should see less snow.