May 6, 2013: Rain Returns On Wednesday

Forecast Highlights:

The recent stretch of dry conditions without rain will come to an end as a low pressure tracks up the coast, producing widespread showers across the region especially on Wednesday. Generally seasonable temperatures will continue through the weekend along with scattered showers, with drier conditions returning by Sunday and early-mid next week but along with a strong cool air mass.

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Tonight - Friday: Occasional Showers

The upper level low currently over the SE states will track northeast into the region, with cloud cover expected to spread in on Tuesday. Highs are expected to peak in the low to upper 60s in Long Island and coastal CT, upper 60s in NYC, low 70s in northern NJ and low to mid 70s in SE NY and interior CT.

Widespread rain will move in from the southeast overnight mainly after 2-5 AM, and is expected to be heavy at times with rumbles of thunder possible from NYC and further west/south especially during the morning hours through 10 AM-12 PM. By the second half of the day, lighter rain is expected for NYC and further west/south while the moderate rain bands spread into Long Island and CT. Highs are expected to peak in the upper 50s to low 60s across most of the area. At least 1/2 to 1 inch is expected west and south of NYC, with 1/4 to 1/2 inch from NYC and further north/east.

With the upper level low overhead on Thursday, mostly cloudy skies are expected with scattered thunderstorms and highs reaching the mid to upper 60s in Long Island and the upper 60s to low 70s from NYC and further north/west. The ULL will clear the area on Friday, with partly sunny skies expected and highs briefly warming into the upper 60s to low 70s in Long Island and the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further north/west.


Weekend - Next Week: More Rain, Then Chilly

By the weekend, strong ridging is expected to expand into western North America, with a trough digging into the north central US. A low pressure is modeled to track north of the area, with mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers on Saturday. Due to the timing of the trough dropping south, however, the cold front is not expected to clear the area until Sunday at the earliest. Highs on Saturday are likely to generally end up in the 60s, depending on the amount of cloud cover and how much rain falls.

The trough will drop into the region by Sunday into early-mid next week with a relatively cool air mass for this time of the year dropping in, with widespread 850mb temperatures below 0C possible, resulting in another round of cooler than average temperatures. Drier conditions will return as well as more sunshine, with highs likely back into the 60s or the upper 50s, with overnight lows likely in the 30s inland. Stay tuned for more information on the outlook for next weekend and early next week.