May 15, 2013: Warmer Ending To Week

Reminder: The blog will be in a limited updating schedule through Friday, May 17. Until then, updates will be posted every 2 days.

Forecast Highlights:

Scattered showers were observed early today ahead of a warm front currently moving through the region, ending a strong cool spell with morning temperatures in the 30s inland. A brief warmth surge is expected for the late week with highs warming up well into the 70s, but with persistence in the current pattern as the warmth struggles to settle in.

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Late Week: Warmer Again

A strong warm air mass moved ESE through the northern half of the US over the last 2 days, first resulting in a record heat surge in the Midwest yesterday with less extreme heat shifting into the Mid Atlantic today. The area will only be briefly in the warm sector as a cold front quickly clears the region later tonight, but with a more zonal flow expected tomorrow along with a west wind, temperatures will fail to cool down, instead warming up into the upper 70s to low 80s across most of the area away from the eastern coastal areas with mostly sunny skies expected. The warmest temperatures are expected in NE NJ with widespread low 80s likely. A slight cool down in temperatures is expected for Friday with a lighter NW wind with highs peaking in the low to mid 70s across the area.


Weekend - Next Week: Cooler, More Clouds/Possible Rain

For Saturday, most models indicate continued sunshine and seasonable temperatures while the GFS shows a chilly rain across the region. Given that the GFS is the current outlier I have sided with the rest of the models, with Saturday likely to be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area, likely continuing into Sunday with a slight increase in cloud cover. By early next week, most models significantly diverge, with the ECM showing a significant warmth surge, the GFS and DGEX suppressing any warmth to the south and keeping the region under a cooler and occasionally rainy pattern, and the CMC starting out chilly and rainy but with a brief warmth surge by the middle of the week. While there is uncertainty regarding the specific details of the early week outlook, the overall idea at this time is for increased cloud cover for the first half of next week, possible showers for the early week and the potential for a mid-week brief warmth surge. More information will be posted on next week's outlook as details become clearer.