May 24, 2013: Cold Weekend, Then Gradual Warmup

Forecast Highlights:

A cold front crossed the area today, resulting in near average temperatures for eastern parts of the area and an unseasonably cold rain north and west of NYC with temperatures stuck in the upper 40s to low 50s. A cutoff low pressure will develop offshore and slowly track northeast, setting up for more rain on Saturday with much colder than average temperatures, eventually giving way to a warming trend with temperatures back above average by late next week.

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Weekend Outlook: Cold/Rainy Start, Warmer Ending

As of 12 AM, the coastal low pressure is developing just east of Long Island, and is expected to continue slowly drifting NNE, ending up just east of Boston late on Saturday before stalling and possibly executing a small loop. With an unseasonably cold air mass, cloud cover and widespread rain, temperatures on Saturday will be much colder than average across most of the region, only peaking in the 30s and 40s across New England, with temperatures aloft even cold enough to support snow in the higher elevations of New England.

The area will be on the southwestern edge of the precipitation shield, with rain especially expected to focus over Connecticut, where highs will peak in the mid to upper 40s with at least 1/2 to 1 inch of rain expected. Long Island, SE NY and NYC will also be colder than average, with occasional showers, amounting to 1/4 to 1/2 inch, with highs reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s; the average high temperatures by this time of the year are in the mid 70s. Northern NJ will see less rain, with occasional showers amounting to at least 1/4 to locally 1/2 inch, with highs generally in the mid 50s. Windy conditions are expected, with a NW wind at 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph.

The cutoff low pressure will slowly move out of the region, with clearing skies on Sunday, a breezy NW wind at 10-20 mph, and highs peaking in the low to mid 60s in southern CT and the mid to upper 60s across the rest of the area. A high pressure will expand into the region on Monday with more sunshine, decreasing winds and warming temperatures aloft, resulting in mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 70s for Memorial Day.


Next Week: Heat Returns

Following the departure of the weekend trough, ridging will spread east into the central and eastern US, with a warm air mass surging into the eastern half of the US, being blocked from passing north of the region by troughing in southeastern Canada. Tuesday will be mainly dry with highs likely in the low-mid 70s again, with a warm front likely to move through overnight into early Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely around this time frame. By Thursday and Friday, the region is expected to be under a much warmer air mass, with widespread temperatures in the 80s expected; there is some uncertainty regarding a potential back door cold front the ECM is depicting which would limit how warm temperatures get, although should the frontal boundary stay north of the area, temperatures have the potential to reach and/or exceed 90 degrees for parts of the area. Uncertainty increases beyond late next week, although the potential is there for rain to return late next weekend or early next week. Stay tuned for more information on the medium range outlook.