May 17, 2013: Warmer Temps, Storms Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

Sunshine and seasonable temperatures will continue on Saturday, but will be short lasting as clouds increase by Sunday with a risk of scattered showers. A brief surge of warmth is expected towards the middle of next week with 80 degrees possible again, but with a risk of thunderstorms expected as well, possibly strong or severe, followed by another cool down late in the week.

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Weekend Outlook: Sunny Start, Cloudier Ending

A trough remains in place over the region, with mostly sunny skies and a light south wind expected for Saturday with temperatures remaining mostly seasonable, in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees east of NYC and in the low to mid 70s from NYC and further north/west. By Sunday, cloud cover will increase with a SSE wind and a risk of isolated showers. Highs are expected to peak in the mid to upper 60s in Long Island/S CT and the upper 60s to low 70s from NYC and further north/west.


Next Week: Warmer, Stormy

By early-mid next week, a low pressure will develop and stall near the Midwest, resulting in widespread thunderstorms across that region; with a trough present over SE Canada, a frontal boundary is expected to remain close to the area through the majority of next week, starting out to the north on Monday and Tuesday before shifting south, ending up closer on Wednesday and Thursday. Monday will start out mostly cloudy with a risk of isolated showers or storms with highs peaking in the upper 60s to mid 70s, but much warmer temperatures likely for Tuesday, reaching the mid 70s to low 80s across the area, potentially the mid 80s in the immediate NYC area. The frontal boundary will shift closer to the area, with thunderstorms, possibly strong or severe, likely on Tuesday into Wednesday. At this time I am siding towards the frontal boundary reaching the area, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered thunderstorms likely into Wednesday and Thursday as well with highs generally in the low 70s, possibly the upper 60s in the cooler case scenario. Drier conditions are more likely to return towards at least Friday or next weekend with another trough likely to drop into the region, although considering this is over a week away the longer range outlook is subject to some changes. Stay tuned for more information on next week's outlook with a more detailed discussion on Saturday.