May 26, 2013: Heat Wave Likely Late This Week

Forecast Highlights:

The storm that affected the region with unusually cold weather yesterday has mostly left, with warmer temperatures, more sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 60s across most of the area. In a significant reversal from the weekend cold, temperatures will end up well above average by the late week, with temperatures climbing near/over 90 degrees for the Thursday-Saturday time frame in what may be the first heat wave of the summer.

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Today - Tuesday: Slowly Warming Up

The cutoff low that affected the region yesterday is currently near Maine and tracking northeast, with clearing skies across the region. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with lows falling into the mid 30s to near 40 degrees inland, upper 40s in NYC and the low to mid 40s across the rest of the area. With the cold temperatures, areas of frost are possible for parts of far northwest NJ and Orange County in NY. Mostly sunny skies will continue into Memorial Day with his in the low to mid 70s across the area, with similar temperatures again on Tuesday.


Wednesday - Sunday: Heat Wave Likely

Expected Setup: With continued troughing in the western US, the ridge axis will gradually shift east into the central and eastern US with a low pressure developing in the Midwest, resulting in more severe weather in that region while a warmer air mass is pulled into the central US. Ridging will shift into the eastern US by the midweek, setting up for a westerly flow aloft over the region. With the frontal boundary associated with the Midwest storm expected to remain mostly north of the region, the warm air mass will be brought into the region with 850mb temperatures over 16-18c, resulting in widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the region for the Thursday-Sunday time frame, perhaps reaching heat wave criteria in parts of the region where temperatures reach and/or exceed 90 degrees 3 days in a row.

Outlook for NYC area: The warm front is expected to move through on Wednesday; most of the thunderstorms from the frontal passage are expected to remain north of the area, but with a risk of scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday night into Wednesday, with highs on Wednesday likely reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. For Thursday through Saturday, the warm air mass will be in place, with mostly sunny skies, west/WSW winds, and highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s across most of the area, with isolated mid 90s not out of the question in northeast NJ. With the westerly wind direction, most of Long Island and southern CT are also likely to warm into the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. The next cold front is expected to move through the region sometime between late Sunday and Monday; at this time, most of Sunday is likely to be dry with temperatures again warming into the upper 80s to low 90s with the frontal passage occurring overnight, but with the timing still subject to some changes. More information will be posted on the late week and weekend outlook over the next few days.