May 13, 2013: Widespread Frost Tonight

Reminder: The blog will be in a limited updating schedule through Friday, May 17. Until then, updates will be posted every 2 days.

Forecast Highlights:

An unseasonably cool air mass will remain in place tonight and tomorrow, with temperatures remaining moderately below average. A warmer air mass will return for the mid-late week, with some showers on Wednesday followed by highs back into the 70s by the late week into Saturday, but with a continued lack of sustained warmth as another storm approaches by early next week.

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Tonight - Weds: Slowly Warming Up

Temperatures today were unseasonably cool across the area, with highs in Central Park only reaching 58 degrees. Clearing skies are expected tonight to accompany the peak of the cool air mass, with lows falling into the low 40s in NYC, mid 30s to near 40 degrees in the north/west suburbs and Long Island/southern CT, and the low to mid 30s inland. With the cold temperatures, frost is likely in the north/west suburbs into southern CT and eastern parts of LI, with widespread frost expected for the interior areas where the higher elevations are likely to fall below freezing.

Mostly sunny skies are expected for Tuesday with highs slightly warmer but still below average, peaking in the upper 50s to low 60s inland and the low to mid 60s across the rest of the area. A warm front will move through on Wednesday, likely producing scattered showers and thunderstorms especially north/west of NYC towards the late afternoon and evening into the early overnight hours. There is some uncertainty regarding temperatures depending on cloud cover and the timing of the rain, with overall thinking at this time for highs in the low to mid 60s across most of the area with locations north/east of NYC possibly struggling to pass the low 60s.


Late Week - Beyond: Warming Up

The warm front will be quickly followed by a cold front that will clear most of the area on Thursday while producing little, if any additional rain; temperatures will fail to cool down behind this front, instead warming up into the low to mid 70s across most of the area, with similar temperatures expected again for Friday and Saturday with mostly sunny skies.

The next storm is likely to approach the region by Sunday into early next week; there is still uncertainty at this time regarding the exact timing of this system, although the latest models suggest the area will be close to the edge of the warm sector, with cloud cover and at least some showers likely with the arrival of this system, as well as temperatures possibly struggling to significantly warm up beyond the 60s/low 70s. This forecast is still subject to change, however, given that this is still at least a week away.