Oct 6, 2011: 80-85 Degrees This Weekend

As a strong high pressure moved into the region today, mostly sunny skies were observed with near average high temperatures, reaching the mid to upper 60s across the area. Despite the average high temperatures, however, the combination of a colder air mass over the region, clear skies, and radiational cooling helped to bring temperatures to their lowest point yet this fall, with most of the area seeing low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s with the exception of NYC. Temperatures dropped as low as 35 degrees in Sussex, NJ, and frost was observed in the interior parts of the area this morning.

Similar conditions to those of last night are expected tonight, if not slightly colder, with lows dropping into the lower to mid 30s inland and the upper 30s to lower 40s across the rest of the area except for NYC and places surrounding NYC, where lows should be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Frost is expected again in interior areas. By Saturday, however, a significantly warmer air mass will return into the region, bringing high temperatures into the 80s across most of the area for Sunday and Monday, at least 15 degrees above the average for this time of the year. Temperatures will cool down by the second half of next week, but the colder temperatures won't be the highlight of the end of next week, as a potential subtropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will move into the US, bringing a wet ending to next week across the region.



Tomorrow's Outlook:

With the cold air mass starting to move out of the region, tomorrow will bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area. The high pressure will remain stationary over the region, providing the area with light SSE winds and sunny skies. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than those of today, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s from NYC and further west, and the mid to upper 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.


Saturday - Tuesday: Unseasonably Warm

As the strong high pressure settles over the region, to the south of the area, west/WNW winds are expected for this weekend. Meanwhile, a strong ridge to the west of the region will spread further east, bringing a much warmer air mass into the region, with 850 mb temperatures reaching 16 degrees celsius. These conditions, combined with the sunny skies, will bring unseasonably warm temperatures across the area for this weekend into early next week.

Saturday will be the first warm day of this time period. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s from NYC and further west, and the mid to upper 70s in Long Island and southern CT. Parts of the immediate NYC area may reach 80 degrees. Sunday will be the warmest day, with lower to mid 80s inland, mid 80s across most of the immediate NYC area, and upper 70s to lower 80s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut. These temperatures are at least 15 degrees above average, if not more in some places. Monday will bring similar high temperatures but a few degrees colder, reaching the lower 80s from NYC and further west, and with a weak trough moving into the Northeast on Tuesday, temperatures will cool down in the area as well, reaching the mid to upper 70s, which is still well above the average for this time of the year.


Wednesday - Next Weekend: Colder, Rain Returns


During the time that the warm spell will affect the area, the latest models continue to agree with a tropical or subtropical system forming in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Should this storm reach tropical or subtropical intensity, it will be named Rina. This storm will then move into Florida, and is expected to move north through the US in the form of remnants. The exact track of this storm is still unknown, and ranges from a track through the Ohio Valley to a coastal track, but regardless, this storm is expected to pull in a moist and humid air mass, which may be capable of producing widespread rain, potentially heavy, across the region between Wednesday and Friday, along with colder temperatures, dropping back into the lower 70s. Stay tuned for more information on the rain event for the second half of next week.

Beyond Friday, there is increasing uncertainty with the pattern due to uncertainty with the location of a low pressure near or north of Michigan as well as the tropical remnants, but there does appear to be interaction between the two systems, which may pull colder air into the northern half of the US by next weekend. At this time, it does not appear that this should be a strong, sustained cold spell, but it may be a step towards a colder ending to October compared to the first half of the month. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.