Wednesday, June 8, 2011

June 8: Hot, Humid, Stormy Thursday

The second day of the heat wave brought temperatures in the area to their warmest point so far this year, with mid 90s inland, upper 80s to mid 90s in Long Island/southern Connecticut, and mid to upper 90s in the immediate NYC area. Teterboro airport in Bergen county even reached 100 degrees! Tomorrow will bring even hotter temperatures into the area, but relief is on the way, as a cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms for this weekend.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be the hottest day of this heat wave, and perhaps the hottest day of the year. With 850 mb temperatures near 20-21c, a west wind, and mostly sunny skies, temperatures will quickly warm up through the morning, already reaching the lower 90s in the immediate NYC area by 10 AM.

Temperatures will continue to warm up, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s across most of the area, even into central/northern Long Island. The west wind will limit the sea breeze influence, with most of southern Long Island in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The hottest temperatures will be in the immediate NYC area, where widespread upper 90s are expected, and some places in NE NJ will reach the 100 degree mark. With dew points in the mid to upper 60s, the heat index may get as high as 103-105 degrees in the immediate NYC area.

The cold front will approach the area, and while the front itself will not move through until Friday, scattered thunderstorms are expected to reach the area tomorrow evening. Some of these storms will be severe, capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail.


Friday and weekend outlook:

With the cold front moving through on Friday, there is a risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms once again. Severe weather risk in the area, if any, is uncertain, but it is unlikely to be a big risk, and the best risk of severe weather will stay to the south of the area. High temperatures will cool down back into the 80s across most of the area, with mid 80s in the immediate NYC area.

There are larger differences with the models by the weekend, but consensus is there for occasional showers and thunderstorms to affect the area with much cooler temperatures, only reaching the mid to upper 70s across most of the area. Drier conditions will likely return by early next week.

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