June 18, 2011: Heat, Storms Return Wednesday

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After yesterday's storms, which first brought a round of heavy rain in the morning followed by strong thunderstorms in the afternoon, resulting in rain totals locally as high as 2-3 inches, today was a much nicer day across the area. Partly sunny skies were observed today, along with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s inland, mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Comfortable weather conditions will continue over the next several days, with partly sunny skies along with the risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, especially on Monday afternoon. As a much warmer air mass briefly reaches the region, however, much warmer temperatures will return by Wednesday, with parts of the area likely to reach the 90s once again along with a risk of severe thunderstorms.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be another nice day across the area. Mostly to partly sunny skies are expected with a NE/NNE wind. 850 mb temperatures will be similar to those of today, and as a result, similar temperatures are expected as well, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.


Monday - Tuesday: Warming Up

Since this morning, the models have backed away from the idea of a low pressure bringing heavy rainfall, and instead show only scattered rain activity in the region. For tonight's update, I kept the forecast for Monday the same, expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies with the risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening hours. Monday will bring the coolest temperatures this week, only reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area.

Warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out once again, but most of the area will stay dry. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west, and the mid 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.


Wednesday - Friday: Storm Brings Warmth, Thunderstorms

A low pressure moving towards the region from the Great Lakes will bring a surge of warmth into the area along with a risk of severe thunderstorms. The heat currently building in the south central US will spread into the region by the early week, reaching the area on Wednesday. Widespread 80s are expected across the area, with lower 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area. In the evening, with models showing supportive severe weather parameters as the area is in the warm sector of the storm, there is the potential for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to develop in the late afternoon and evening hours, with storms likely in the overnight hours.

For Thursday and Friday, the models are having difficulty with handling the track of the storm, with the GFS showing the storm stuck over the region through the weekend. There is too much uncertainty to narrow down the small details, but when looking at the overall picture, showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue through the late week, with drier conditions potentially returning by next weekend with colder temperatures. Stay tuned for more information on the warmth and potential storms.


Tropics: Tropical Depression 2-E Likely To Form


Atlantic: At this time, there is no tropical disturbance that may develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days, but there are still signs that activity may increase especially near the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea area by the end of this month.

East Pacific: The tropical disturbance currently south of eastern Mexico that was mentioned two days ago has become more organized, and is still under a favorable environment, with no dry air, low shear, and warm SSTs. It is likely to develop into a tropical depression as soon as tomorrow, and may become the second named tropical storm of the East Pacific hurricane season this week. This storm will move towards the WNW, potentially close enough to the coast to affect coastal areas of southern Mexico.