**Short term outlooks will be posted to the left of each update. Click on the images to view them in a larger size.**
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6:25 PM: We have already passed the peak of today's storms, and the storms are starting to become more isolated across the region, but there are still a few strong storms in the area. Hudson county in NJ is seeing a heavy thunderstorm, which will move east into Manhattan and northern Queens. Another storm is currently entering southwestern Suffolk county, and will move ENE through the county. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect the area over the next 1-2 hours.This is the last storm update for today. Unless another strong storm forms, the next update will be posted tonight, discussing this weekend and the outlook for next week.
4:45 PM: Severe thunderstorms continue to affect parts of the area. The main storm is currently affecting Union and Essex counties, as two separate severe storms are merging. As this is only a new development, with the storm in Union moving ESE and the storm in Essex moving NNE, the outcome is uncertain, but it is possible that the storm may then shift towards more of an ENE direction, or the storm in Union may become the main storm and continue to shift towards the ESE. Places that may be affected include SE Bergen, Hudson counties, and Manhattan, with this storm capable of producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.
3:10 PM: Downtown Manhattan is currently under a severe thunderstorm which is producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. This storm will continue to move ENE, reaching northern Queens. Meanwhile, an area of heavy thunderstorms continues to affect NE New Jersey, which will move into western Long Island as well over the next 1/2 hour. Further west, strong thunderstorms continue to affect West Passaic and Orange counties, with more storms currently forming and intensifying in western Morris county.
2:35 PM: The strong thunderstorm previously in SW Union County is now near the SE part of that county, and is moving east. This storm will affect Jersey City, southern Manhattan and western Queens over the next 1/2 hour, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and the potential for small hail. Otherwise, widespread heavy thunderstorms will continue to affect northern New Jersey.2:00 PM: More storms formed across northern New Jersey since the previous update, with some strong storms currently active. The strongest storm is near SW Union county and is moving ENE. This storm will affect Hudson county and Manhattan over the next 1/2 hour. Another strong storm is still slowly moving NNE along the Bergen/west Passaic border. Otherwise, several weaker storms are active in northern NJ.
**A short term outlook was posted to the left, showing the current location of storms and their forecast tracks. Click on the image to view it in a larger size.**
1:25 PM: As mentioned with last night's update, thunderstorms in eastern Pennsylvania consolidated into an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms as they moved into New Jersey, bringing heavy rain to parts of the area early this morning. I underestimated the rainfall amounts in last night's update, however, as most of northern New Jersey received amounts from 3/4 to as much as 2 inches of rain. Most of Long Island and southern Connecticut saw 1/2 to 1 inch of rain, but western Suffolk and Nassau counties in Long Island missed most of the rain, with amounts less than 1/4 inch.The storms that affected the area early this morning are now east of Long Island, as shown on the radar image to the left. Meanwhile, as a low pressure is moving near the area, thunderstorms are developing especially over NE Pennsylvania and SE New York, capable of producing heavy rainfall and small hail. These storms are almost stationary, very slowly drifting to the NNE. As a result, flash flooding is possible in places that are affected by these storms.
Short Term Forecast: There are several storms currently affecting the area. The main storm is near northern Somerset county, and is slowly drifting NNE, slowly moving towards eastern Morris and western Essex counties. Another storm is near West Passaic county, and will move NE along the border between Rockland/Orange counties. Another weak cell is developing near Jersey city, and will move through Hudson and eastern Bergen counties. In addition, strong thunderstorms are currently entering Sussex county, and will be capable of bringing heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds.
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