Nov 4, 2010 Afternoon Storm Update

4:20 PM: This morning, we saw a round of heavy, chilly rain affect the area, with the heaviest rainfall amounts from central NJ and further north/NE, where radar estimates show up to 1-2 inches of rain so far. Some snow also fell today in the higher elevations of the Northeast, though accumulations were light.

The area is currently seeing cloudy skies, with rain in the western areas moving NE. The low pressure is currently SE of New York City, with another coastal low taking shape over the coast of North Carolina, which will become the main low pressure tonight. Looking at the latest observations, however, the storm will likely be further east than modeled yesterday and today and may not be as strong.

The eastern edge of the storm is moving east at this time, with not much of a negative tilt taking place with the storm, which would pull it north and NNW. The storm will start to become more negatively tilted later tonight, but for now, the storm will continue to move NE, with the western edge of the rain eventually moving offshore. This would mean that the storm develops too late for a scenario like the models are showing to happen, pulling the storm NNW into the Northeast, and instead the storm continues to move north, with the cold spell not as weak as modeled last night in the second scenario I mentioned.

Tonight's Forecast: As a result of what was discussed above, tonight's heavy rains will be focused offshore and in eastern New England, while the current area of rain related to the storm moving into the area will bring an additional round of moderate rain to the area until the evening hours, when the rain should start to end from west to east across the area, with another 1/4 to locally 1/2 inch of rain expected. Mostly cloudy skies, however, will stay in place until Saturday, when scattered snow showers are possible in the interior parts of the area.

More on the coming cold spell will be mentioned with tonight's update, which will also include more details on the potential snow showers for NW NJ/parts of SE NY on Saturday, a potentially significant storm that may affect the Northeast for the early week while only bringing minor impacts to the NYC area, and the mild temperatures that will follow.