Nov 24: Final Forecast For Tomorrow

Notes:

- The 5-Day Forecasts have been resumed for Long Island/S CT. Check the 5-Day Forecast for the how the storm tomorrow may affect your area, and how cold it could get over the weekend.

- The winter polls will be closing on Saturday. Please vote if you have not done so yet.

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Today was a mostly sunny day across the area, though temperatures were much colder than those of yesterday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s inland and in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the immediate NYC area, which was slightly warmer than expected.

Clouds are increasing in the area as a storm is moving in, currently producing a wintry mix in the Ohio Valley into SW Pennsylvania, and this storm should continue to move towards the area, likely bringing the second snow/sleet of the winter to places west of New York City for Thanksgiving.


Thanksgiving Day Scenario / Forecast:

Temperatures are expected to be quite chilly tonight, in the mid 20s to lower 30s away from the coast, as a cold air mass starts to leave the region and the front end of the storm starts to move into Pennsylvania. As a high pressure will be exiting the area, however, cold air will be trapped in Pennsylvania, leading to a CAD, or Cold Air Damming, set up. Dew points are currently low across the Northeast, and are expected to be in the 20s tomorrow when the precipitation begins to fall, which will lead to evaporative cooling, or temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s as precipitation starts to fall in Pennsylvania. With 850 mb temperatures slightly below 0c, this will lead to a widespread wintry mix in Pennsylvania, southern NY and northern NJ, which could accumulate in PA given the heavy amounts of precipitation expected.


Forecast for NYC area: In the area, precipitation will not be as heavy, however some snow and sleet are still expected west of New York City. High temperatures are expected to peak in the late morning for the western parts of the area and in the early-mid afternoon for the eastern parts of the area, in the mid to upper 30s further west, upper 30s to lower 40s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 40s for Long Island/S CT.

As mentioned previously, due to the low dew points, temperatures will drop once precipitation starts to fall around 1-3 PM. The drop in temperatures will be the most noticeable further west, where temperatures by the late afternoon will drop into the lower 30s with snow and sleet likely to fall, potentially accumulating between a trace and 1/2 inch in the faster scenario. In the immediate NYC area, temperatures will likely drop into the upper 30s, with some snow/sleet expected west of NYC. There shouldn't be much of a drop in Long Island/S CT, which will see mainly cloudy skies with a few showers possible in the late afternoon.

Note, however, that there is still some uncertainty with the storm for tomorrow, and it is possible that the storm may be a little slower than expected, like the NAM/00z GFS models are showing. If this verifies, temperatures could be several degrees warmer in the area, with the main precipitation type being rain with maybe a few flakes inland. Stay tuned for storm updates that will be posted throughout the day tomorrow.


Thursday Night - Friday: Rising Temps, Then Cold Front Moves Through

On Thursday night, warm air advection will take place, pushing out the small area of cold air and changing over any frozen precipitation in the northern Mid Atlantic into rain. Light rain will continue to fall across the area overnight with rising temperatures, though there could be some dry periods overnight. Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 40s inland, mid to upper 40s in the immediate NYC area and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for Long Island/S CT.

On Friday, the cold front will move through, producing a round of moderate rain for the area. Temperatures will be steady in the morning to early afternoon, and should drop in the late afternoon once the cold front moves through with increasing winds. Low temperatures will be much colder overnight, ranging from the lower-mid 20s inland to the lower-mid 30s in NYC.

Saturday - Sunday: Cold, Breezy

The coldest air mass so far this fall will move into the area behind the cold front, producing much colder temperatures. High temperatures on Saturday will struggle to reach the 40s across most of the area, peaking in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with overnight lows cold again, similar to, if not slightly warmer than those of Friday night.

Sunday should warm up a little, with highs in the lower to upper 40s, but with clear skies, overnight lows could be slightly colder away from the coast. Monday will continue the trend, with high temperatures returning into the 50s in the immediate NYC area.


Stay tuned for more details on the longer range, including a storm on Tuesday and Wednesday which will bring warmer temperatures and the potential of moderate-heavy rain which will be followed by colder air, and another potential storm around December 4-6.