Nov 28: Wednesday Storm, Longer Range Outlook

Notes:

- The 5-Day Forecast was updated tonight.
- The poll for this winter's temperatures and snowfall in NYC ended yesterday. Here are the final results:

Temperatures: (Total 39 votes)

1 vote - Well above average (>+5)
5 votes - Above average (+3 to +5)
9 votes - Slightly above average (+1 to +3)
10 votes - Average (-1 to +1)
12 votes - Slightly below average (-1 to -3)
1 vote - Below average (-3 to -5)
1 vote - Well Below average (-5+)

Snowfall: (Total 41 votes)

4 votes - Well below average (<12")
4 votes - Below average (12" - 18")
8 votes - Slightly below average (18" - 24")
9 votes - Average (24" - 28")
10 votes - Slightly above average (28" - 34")
2 votes - Above average (34" - 40")
4 votes - Well above average (40"+)

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Today was a mostly sunny and chilly day across the area, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s inland, upper 40s to lower 50s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 40s in Long Island/S CT, which was slightly warmer than expected. Temperatures this morning were cold, in some places the coldest so far this fall, with widespread lower 20s inland and most places away from NYC dropping into the 20s.

Tonight will be another cold night, with clear skies and temperatures already dropping steadily across the area, though tomorrow will be even warmer, with lower 50s returning into the immediate NYC area. Temperatures will continue to warm up until Wednesday, when a storm will end the warmth with strong winds, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.


Tomorrow's Outlook:


*Slight revision: The 50-55 degree area is extended further out to cover western Long Island and most of NE NJ.

Tomorrow will be another mostly sunny day across the area with calm winds becoming a light SSE wind. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s inland and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the rest of the area.


Tuesday - Wednesday: Significant Storm To Affect The Area

**NYC Area Weather currently has 3 alerts in effect: A Rain Warning, Rain Watch, and a Wind Alert. Please check the Weather Alerts page for the latest alerts in your area.**


Tuesday is expected to be a mostly cloudy day for the area, with high temperatures in the lower to upper 50s across the area. A cold front in the Ohio Valley will approach the area slowly, leading to rain developing in Pennsylvania and a few showers potentially reaching NW NJ in the evening hours.

On Tuesday night, the cold front will move towards Pennsylvania, with a wave of low pressure expected to develop along the front. Tuesday night will be cloudy for the area with a few showers possible, especially in the western parts of the area and later in the overnight hours, though winds are expected to increase. As the storm draws in a warmer air mass, temperatures will steadily rise overnight, reaching the mid to upper 50s inland and in Long Island/S CT, with upper 50s in the immediate NYC area.

The cold front will move through the area on Wednesday, bringing heavy rainfall. A line of heavy rain and thunderstorms will move from west to east, affecting the western parts of the area during the morning/afternoon hours and the eastern parts of the area in the afternoon/evening hours. Windy conditions are expected, with even stronger wind gusts possible with any heavier rain shower/thunderstorm. As a result, it is possible that the Wind Alert may be upgraded to a High Wind Watch.

By the time that the storm is over on Wednesday night, rain totals should range from 1 to 2, locally 3 inches in the western and central parts of the area, with 3/4 to 1.5 inches further east. The rain map created yesterday remains unchanged and may be used as the final rain map.


Longer Range: Colder, Potentially Snowy Pattern Setting Up

On Thursday, after the cold front moves through, a negatively tilted trough will move into the area, bringing low temperatures back into the 20s and high temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s. This time, however, it appears that the trough may stick around in the area through at least Saturday, keeping these cold temperatures in place.

By Sunday, there is more uncertainty on the time frame, however with the GFS considered as an outlier and not used for this update as it is still having difficulty handling the pattern, it appears that a low pressure from the west, potentially an Alberta Clipper, will move west to east through the United States, potentially moving through the Ohio Valley. This potential clipper will likely stay to the south of the area given the cold air and the -NAO in place, and while it is possible that like the GGEM/DGEX models are showing, the clipper may be moisture starved and may not be able to make it further east than the Appalachians, if this storm is stronger and does make it east of the Appalachians, it is possible that there could be a little snow in the area on Sunday. Stay tuned for more details on this potential storm.

For the longer range, however, the currently strong -NAO is expected to weaken afterwards but is still expected to remain negative, and while there is a lot of uncertainty for this time frame, it is possible that the pattern may become more favorable for snow events affecting the area after December 5. More on this potential will be discussed over the next few days.