May 15: Tuesday Storm Update, Heat To Return

Today was a very pleasant day across the area, with mainly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 70s. The next few days are expected to continue to be the same, though afterwards we are going to see colder temperatures return, along with rain.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is expected to be quite similar to today, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s across the area and mainly sunny skies. The rest of the region should also be mild, with temperatures in the 70s across most of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

The only areas of precipitation tomorrow are expected to be in southern Virginia and southwestern West Virginia, where thunderstorms are expected from a storm that should affect our area on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Early To Mid Week Outlook

The models have changed since my last update, leading to several changes in the forecast. While the model solutions are not final yet, as there is still time for trending, a few of the solutions shown yesterday are less likely to verify.

Monday is now expected to be warmer than previously shown to be, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s for the interior areas, and in the mid 70s for the immediate NYC area. This should be slightly warmer than Sunday.

There is still a lot of uncertainty for the Tuesday-Wednesday storm. The GFS is suppressed with the storm, bringing less than a tenth of an inch of rain, though it is most likely too suppressed, as it goes against its other runs as well as some other models by taking the first low pressure east to ENE, leading into the Mid Atlantic instead of the Ohio Valley. The NAM runs are more reasonable, bringing at least 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain in the area. The latest NAM run, however, showed a completely different solution, where the storm retrogrades, and dumps 2-3 inches of rain on the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night. While it is uncertain whether this becomes a trend or not, as this is the first run to show such a solution, it is something that needs to be watched.

At this time, I am making some changes to my forecast from yesterday, now expecting up to 1/4 inch on Monday night, with periods of rain, heavy at times on Tuesday afternoon, bringing 3/4 to 1 inch of rain. High temperatures on Tuesday should be chilly due to the rain, in the lower to mid 50s inland, and in the mid to upper 50s for the immediate NYC area. During Tuesday night, periods of rain are possible early, bringing another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain, though this time frame is uncertain and may change. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. Please note that this is not a final forecast yet, these are my current thoughts, and may still change.

Late Week To Next Weekend: Heat Returns

After the last time we had very warm temperatures, in early May, it appears that very warm temperatures should return once again. While Thursday shouldn't be as warm, with high temperatures in the 70s, Friday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures returning into the 80s across the area. By Saturday, there is some uncertainty about the extent of the warmth, though if the warmer case scenario verifies, high temperatures could end up in the mid to upper 80s, with 90 degrees possible once again.