May 11: Chilly Weather Continues, Longer Range Outlook

Temperatures today remained 10-20 degrees below average, with high temperatures in the 50s across the area. Low temperatures were in the 30s for the suburbs of New York City, and even reached the upper 20s in Orange and Sussex counties! Tonight should be warmer than last night, with low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, and in the lower to mid 40s for the immediate NYC area, however rain is going to affect the area tonight.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

The storm currently to our west is going to move through the area tonight into tomorrow, bringing periods of light to moderate rain. The heaviest rain should fall in the northwestern parts of the area, with 3/4 to 1 inch of rain expected, with lighter amounts for the immediate NYC area, in the range of 1/2 to 3/4 inches. The rain should slowly begin to end by tomorrow afternoon.

Tomorrow should be the last of the very chilly days. High temperatures should be colder than today, in the upper 40s for thie interior areas, lower 50s for the north and west NYC suburbs, in the mid 50s for NYC, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the immediate coast. To our north, temperatures should be colder, and in fact, it should even be cold enough for snow to fall in the Catskill mountains, with 1 to 3 inches of wet snow possible.

Additional Rain On Friday, Warmer Temperatures

Thursday should remain mainly cloudy with a few isolated showers possible, however temperatures should begin to warm up. High temperatures, while still below average, should be in the lower 60s for the interior areas, and in the mid 60s for the immediate NYC area. The immediate coast should stay colder, with high temperatures in the upper 50s. The chance for showers increases by the evening hours.

By Friday, another storm should affect the area. This storm, however, should be further north than tomorrow's storm, drawing warmer temperatures into our area. High temperatures should return into the 70s, with the potential for the mid to upper 70s in the immediate NYC area in the warmer scenario.

Thunderstorms are expected out of this storm early on Friday morning, as well as Friday afternoon and evening. Strong to potentially severe storms may also be possible on Friday evening, however there is still some uncertainty, so for now I am not mentioning any severe weather in the 5-day forecast, which will be updated later tonight.

Longer Range: Dry And Mild Weekend, Wet Weather Possibly Returns

After the cold front moves through on Friday night, temperatures should slightly cool down for Saturday, however this should not be a significant cool down. High temperatures should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday, and slowly warm into the lower to mid 70s on Sunday. Dry conditions are expected on both days.

By Monday, high temperatures should be similar to those of Sunday, however stormy conditions could potentially return. Despite a lot of uncertainty for this time period, the latest models did show rain affecting the area in some way, ranging from up to 1/2 inch of rain on the 18z GFS to 3-5 inches of rain on the 18z DGEX. While it is unknown how much rain falls, there is the potential for moderate to heavy rain and storms to return to the area between next Monday and Wednesday. Stay tuned for more details on this potential storm.