May 31, 2012: Chilly Start To June

Forecast Highlights:


- Heavy Rain, Storms Friday Night
- Partly Cloudy, Scattered Showers Through Next Week
- No Heat Spell In Sight Through Foreseeable Future


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Today's Observations:

Today finally brought a break from the wet pattern as mostly sunny skies and dry conditions were observed. Temperatures were warm but not as hot and humid as last weekend was, with temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area, verifying yesterday's temperature outlook for today. Temperatures will continue to gradually cool down as a trough settles over the region behind a heavy rain event on Friday night, with temperatures only in the upper 60s to mid 70s for highs by next week.


Friday - Weekend: Cooler, Some Rain


Increasing clouds are expected on Friday with highs reaching the mid 70s across most of the area, peaking in the lower 70s closer to the coast. With a slow moving low pressure in the Great Lakes, a negatively tilted cold front will approach, with a line of heavy thunderstorms, some of them severe, forming in the central Mid Atlantic during the afternoon and moving towards the area in the evening. Rain is mostly expected to fall between 12 AM and 6 AM, although some showers may fall before and after this time period. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected, especially west of NYC, with 1/2 to 1 inch of rain expected, locally above 1 inch west of NYC. A few storms may be strong, but the set up is not a favorable one for severe weather for NYC.

The rain will exit the area on Saturday morning, with less cloud cover for the rest of the day. Despite this, however, as the storm approaches the strong block near Greenland, it will slow down with a low pressure stalling near New England. As a result, a trough will develop across the region, with below average temperatures expected. The rest of Saturday will be partly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 70s, in the upper 70s in parts of the immediate NYC area, with partly cloudy skies on Sunday with scattered afternoon showers and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.


Next Week: Chilly, Scattered Showers


The strong block over Greenland will fail to stay in place throughout the entire week, and will extend into Canada while pushing south closer to the US by Monday. The trough will extend further south as well, keeping chilly temperatures compared to the June averages in place. Between Monday and Wednesday, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with scattered showers and temperatures reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s for highs, getting close to 75 degrees on the drier days and leaning more towards the lower to upper 60s on the rainier days. It is possible that these conditions may extend into Thursday and Friday as well, as the widespread trough moving into the region does not appear to be moving out in the foreseeable range through the end of next week.