June 17, 2012: Heat For Wednesday, Thursday

Forecast Highlights:


- Clouds, Chilly Temperatures Continue Tomorrow
- Heat Briefly Moves In Wed/Thurs; 95-100 Degrees Expected
- Chilly Pattern Potentially To Return


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Today's Observations:

More clouds than originally expected were observed today, with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies observed across most of the area resulting in slightly cooler temperatures than expected. Highs ended up in the lower to mid 70s inland, lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid to upper 60s across most of Long Island/S CT.

Partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies will continue through Monday as well, with temperatures similar to those of today, if not slightly warmer. The stretch of slightly cooler than normal temperatures will not last for much longer, however, as a brief yet intense surge of heat moves into the region, producing 95-100 degree heat for parts of the area on Wednesday and Thursday. The heat won't last for long as well, with signs of another chilly pattern developing for the longer range.


Monday - Tuesday Outlook: Starting To Warm Up


With clouds and scattered showers/storms approaching from the west, partly to occasionally mostly cloudy skies will continue on Monday, with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further north/west and the mid 60s to lower 70s in Long Island/S CT. Isolated showers are possible in the westernmost parts of the area, although the approaching rain in Pennsylvania will collapse before reaching the NYC area. Partly cloudy skies are expected for Tuesday with temperatures warming up into the mid 70s across most of Long Island/S CT and the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further north/west.


Wednesday - Beyond: Hot, Then Cooler


A very warm air mass containing 850mb temperatures up to 20-22C will move into the region, providing the area with the biggest heat of the year so far. WSW/SW winds will develop for both days with mostly sunny skies, easily supporting the heat modeled for this time period. Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest days, with temperatures surging into the mid to upper 90s from NYC and further north/west, with upper 80s to mid 90s in most of Long Island/S CT. It is not out of the question that parts of the immediate NYC area reach or get very close to 100 degrees. This time period isn't expected to be very humid, although the heat index is likely to reach the lower 100s in parts of the immediate NYC area.

It now appears that the cold front will move through around Friday, meaning that this surge of heat falls short of reaching the criteria for an official heat wave, as only 2 consecutive days will end up with 90+ degrees. The cold front, however, appears to be more dry than wet, with only a risk of scattered thunderstorms on Friday. Following the cold front, the development of strong ridging over Canada and Greenland as well as an incoming trough will result in another chilly pattern, with temperatures likely near or below average for a while starting on Friday/Saturday while the core of the heat shifts into the Southeast.