June 29, 2012: Heat Continues Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:


- Another day of 95+ degree heat tomorrow
- Storms to mostly stay south of NYC, some perhaps reaching NYC
- 4th of July warmer than average; possible storms?
- Another heat surge possible late next week


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Records tied/set today:


LaGuardia, NY
98 degrees (tied record: 98 degrees - 1959)

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Today's Observations:

As a blast of heat moved into the region, hot temperatures returned to the area today, matching those of last week in some places. The day started out with heavy thunderstorms to the north of a stronger line of storms that moved through Philadelphia, with cloud cover quickly clearing by the late morning with temperatures rapidly rising into the 80s and 90s.

Throughout the afternoon and evening, a large complex of severe thunderstorms moved through the Ohio Valley and into Virginia and Maryland, causing widespread severe wind damage. These storms will remain to the south of the area tonight, but will keep mostly cloudy skies in place. The pattern consisting of MCS moving through the region will continue on Saturday and Sunday, with most of the severe storms again staying to the south of NYC. Temperatures will slightly cool down on Monday and Tuesday, although are likely to slightly warm up again for mid-late next week with the potential for additional thunderstorms.


Weekend Outlook:


Hot temperatures will continue for the weekend, making this the 2nd heat wave of the month. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Saturday with temperatures reaching the mid 90s inland, mid to upper 90s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 80s to lower 90s in Long Island/S CT, approaching the mid 90s closer to NYC and the mid 80s closer to the coast, especially further east. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for Sunday with lower to mid 90s from NYC and further north/west, with mid 80s to lower 90s in Long Island/S CT.

With the pattern currently in place, the potential is also there for 1 or more MCS to move through the region on Saturday and Sunday. Given recent trends, the central Mid Atlantic is the most favored area to see additional severe storm activity during the weekend, although some storm activity cannot be ruled out in the area, especially towards the evening and overnight hours and further south/SW of NYC.


Next Week: Slightly Cooler, Still Warm For July 4th


With the core of the heat retreating back south/west, cooler temperatures are expected for Monday and Tuesday, although no significant cool down is anywhere in sight through the foreseeable future for the US. Temperatures will cool back down into the mid to upper 80s for most of the area, possibly a bit cooler further east closer to the coast, with mostly to partly sunny skies expected.

By Wednesday, the 4th of July, the models are showing the potential for a brief heat surge ahead of another cold front as the ridge remains stuck over the central US. With a warm front likely to move through earlier in the day as well, a warmer air mass will move in, although additional cloud cover may keep temperatures in the mid to upper 80s range. It is not out of the question that temperatures end up a bit higher than currently expected. There's still some uncertainty with the exact scenario and the precipitation outlook for Wednesday isn't high at this time, although the set up does support potential thunderstorm activity across parts of the region on Wednesday, possibly including the area. By late next week, temperatures are likely to stay in the 80s, generally above the 85 degree mark, although there is the potential for another surge of heat by next Friday or the weekend, which according to latest indications may bring another round of 90+ degree heat. Stay tuned for more information on the 4th of July outlook.