June 8, 2012: Additional Storms Today, Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:


- Scattered strong storms expected again today, tomorrow
- Slightly above average temperatures continue into next week
- Storms return by middle of next week


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Yesterday's Observations:

Thursday (June 7) ended up as another partly cloudy day with scattered storm activity in the afternoon and evening. Storms stayed below severe levels, although locally heavy rain was observed with some of the storms. Temperatures continued to slowly warm up, reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further north/west, and the upper 60s to mid 70s in Long Island and southern CT.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will be slightly warmer as well, although a back door cold front will bring cooler temperatures, keeping the area close to the front separating the warmer temperatures to the southwest from the cooler temperatures to the northeast. Slightly warmer than average temperatures will continue through the middle of next week, when the next risk of thunderstorms is expected.


Friday and Weekend Outlook:


Partly sunny skies are expected today, mainly in the afternoon when isolated thunderstorms are expected, especially to the north and northeast of NYC. Although isolated storm activity will affect the area, most of today's storms will stay to the north and NE, where a more widespread thunderstorm outbreak is expected. Temperatures today will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further north/west and the mid to upper 70s in most of Long Island/S CT. Lower 70s are possible closer to the immediate coast, with temperatures closer to NYC reaching 80 degrees.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into the region during the late afternoon and evening hours of Saturday, resulting in a risk of strong storms from NYC and further west and northwest during the evening hours. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the area, getting close to 85 degrees in NE NJ and in the mid 70s near the immediate coast.

The back door cold front will then move towards the area, likely moving through sometime around Sunday. The exact timing of the cold front will determine how warm it gets, with some NAM runs bringing NYC into the lower 90s while the ECMWF barely shows mid 70s. I am siding with the warmer models for the temperature outlook, with lower to mid 80s west and southwest of NYC, possibly reaching the upper 80s towards interior central NJ, with upper 70s to lower 80s in NYC and lower to upper 70s in Long Island/S CT. The temperature outlook for Sunday is still subject to slight changes. Partly cloudy skies are expected with a slight risk of an isolated shower but with no widespread storm activity expected.


Next Week: Additional Storms Expected


With an onshore flow for Monday and Tuesday, cooler temperatures are expected especially further east, with highs in the 70s for most of the area, reaching and perhaps passing 80 degrees in some areas west of NYC. The next cold front will approach the region from the west on Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. The potential is there for some storms to be strong or severe, but at this time the set up does not appear to be supportive of a large severe weather outbreak for the region. Beyond the middle of next week there are more differences with the models with less confidence in the forecast, although with the core of any approaching heat still likely targeting the central US, no large heat is in the forecast through the end of next week and likely into next weekend.