Aug 12, 2011 Morning: Sunday's Heavy Rain Update

Note: This update was posted on Friday morning. The next update will be posted this evening.

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A colder air mass moved into the region behind Wednesday's cold front, bringing colder temperatures into the region yesterday, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, lower to mid 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the lower to mid 80s in most of Long Island/S CT as well. With mostly clear skies and mainly calm winds across the area, temperatures were quite chilly last night, dropping into the lower to mid 50s in NW NJ/Orange County, mid 50s to lower 60s in NE NJ, Long Island and southern CT, and the mid 60s in NYC.

Temperatures will gradually warm up as the chilly air mass exits the region, reaching the mid to upper 80s across most of the area on Saturday. This warmth will be short lived, however, as a low pressure will move into the area on Sunday and Monday, bringing heavy rainfall into the region, including the area, with rainfall amounts potentially as high as 2-3 inches locally.


Today's Outlook:

Todaywill be a nice day across the area as well. With a high pressure over the region providing mostly sunny skies and a light WNW wind, temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 80s across most of the area, with mid 80s in the immediate NYC area.

For tonight, the air mass will be slightly warmer resulting in slightly warmer overnight lows, dropping into the mid 50s in NW NJ/Orange County, upper 50s to lower 60s in Long Island, NE NJ, and southern Connecticut, and the mid 60s in NYC.


Saturday - Monday: Storm Brings Heavy Rain Potential

The warming trend will continue through Saturday, with mostly sunny skies expected as well along with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west and the lower to mid 80s in Long Island/S CT due to a south wind. Cloud cover will start to increase by Saturday afternoon, however, becoming cloudy by the overnight hours as a low pressure approaches the area.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to start affecting the area around 8-11 PM, but are expected to stay mostly light through Sunday morning other than locally moderate/heavy showers. The low pressure will then move closer to the area by Sunday morning, with an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms expected to affect the area during Sunday afternoon and evening. The heaviest rain is expected to stay to the north and west of the area, but heavy rain is expected in parts of the area as well. There is still some slight uncertainty on rainfall amounts, but at this time, most of the area is expected to see at least 1 inch or more, with parts of the area especially from NYC and further north/west potentially seeing up to 2-3 inches. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.


Longer Range: With the low pressure slow to move out, occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through at least Monday afternoon/evening, but these showers should be lighter in intensity. Temperatures will stay chilly with the rain and cloud cover, only reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the area. A high pressure will then move into the region, bringing drier conditions and slowly warming temperatures, reaching the mid 80s from NYC and further west by Wednesday/Thursday of next week.