Dec 7: Big Storm On Sunday, Then More Cold

Note: The 5-Day Forecast page was updated for the immediate NYC and the interior areas up to Sunday. Tomorrow's update may be a brief one, with full updates resumed by Thursday.

-----------------------------------------------

Today was another mostly cloudy, cold and breezy day for the area, though temperatures were slightly warmer than expected, generally in the lower 30s inland and mid 30s in the immediate NYC area. Temperatures are expected to get colder though by Thursday, when high temperatures in the interior are expected to be in the 20s, with lows in the 10s away from NYC. Temperatures will start to warm up by Friday, however a developing storm will bring an end to the dry conditions by Sunday and Monday.


Wednesday - Thursday Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a partly cloudy day with breezy conditions at times. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland, lower to mid 30s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 30s for Long Island/S CT.

As skies clear tomorrow night, and a colder air mass moves in with 850 mb temperatures near -16c, low temperatures are expected to be at their coldest point yet, dropping into the lower to mid 10s inland, mid to upper 10s in S CT, mid 10s to lower 20s north/west of NYC, upper 10s to lower 20s in Long Island, and mid 20s in NYC.

Thursday will be the coldest day of this time frame, with high temperatures in the upper 20s inland, upper 20s to mid 30s in the immediate NYC area, and lower to mid 30s in Long Island/S CT, with mostly sunny skies expected.

Friday-Saturday: Weak Clipper Potential

On Friday evening, a weak clipper well to the north of the area will help push out the cold air out of the region, but in the process of doing so it is capable of producing a few rain or snow showers north of NYC, with snow showers inland. Any precipitation that falls should be light, with little to no snow accumulations expected at this time where it does snow. On Saturday, as the clipper pushes the cold air mass out, high temperatures will warm up, reaching the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area, but a developing storm to the west will quickly bring an end to the mild temperatures.

While there is still uncertainty with the storm, as the models have not yet reached a consensus, the storm is expected to be a strong one, tracking west of the area, with mainly rain falling with the exception of a light wintry mix potential inland when the storm starts and some flurries across the area once the storm ends. I am leaning at this time towards a scenario where the storm track through the Ohio Valley and ends up moving through the Northeast west of NYC, which would bring a scenario like the one mentioned above, with the warmest temperatures reaching the lower 50s in NYC between Sunday and Monday as temperatures could rise overnight depending on the storm track. This is only my current understanding of the potential scenario, and may change, as the models could trend more west, bringing more warmth to the area, or could trend east, potentially bringing a better chance of at least some wintry precipitation along with the rain. Stay tuned for more details on this storm.

While there is uncertainty on the exact scenario, once the storm brings the cold front through, temperatures are likely to quickly drop as a much colder arctic air mass rushes in behind the storm. There is uncertainty on how cold it gets, but Tuesday is expected to be the coldest day, with widespread high temperatures in the 20s across the area possible. Low temperatures in the 10s are expected in at least parts of, if not most of the area, and if the colder solutions verify, low temperatures may even drop below 10 degrees inland, though this is still uncertain. Stay tuned for more information on this potential cold spell.

Dec 6: Cold Week, Storm Expected For Sun-Mon

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was only partially updated, not including Day 5. A full update of the 5-Day Forecast will take place either tomorrow or Wednesday.

------------------------------------------

Today was a cloudy day across the area, and as expected yesterday, widespread snow showers took place, some of which were moderate. High temperatures were in the lower 30s inland, lower to mid 30s for the immediate NYC area, and mid 30s in Long Island/S CT.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mostly cloudy day across the area with a breezy west wind. A few flurries are possible, however any snow will not be as widespread as it was today. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland, lower to mid 30s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 30s for Long Island/S CT.

Tomorrow night will not yet be very cold, but with cloud cover expected to gradually decrease with lighter winds, colder low temperatures are expected, in the 20s for most of the area and upper 10s inland.


Wednesday - Thursday: Coldest Days Of Cold Spell

On Wednesday, as the worst of the arctic air mass surges into the Northeast, the area will only see slightly cooler high temperatures, in the upper 20s to mid 30s, but with clearer skies and a high pressure approahing, much colder overnight lows are expected. Low temperatures on Wednesday night are expected to be in the lower to mid 10s inland, mid 10s to lower 20s north/west of NYC and in S CT, lower 20s in Long Island, and lower to mid 20s in NYC. Wind chills well into the 10s are possible for Thursday morning.

Thursday will have similar high temperatures with mostly sunny skies expected, however overnight low temperatures will still be cold but not as cold as the previous night, as a low pressure approaching the Great Lakes will help push the cold air mass out of the region.


Longer Range: Friday Light Rain/Snow, Big Storm Potential Sunday-Tuesday

Between Friday and Saturday, a weak Alberta Clipper to the north of the area will help push out the cold air mass, but not without first bringing some light precipitation to the area. The precipitation is expeted to fall as rain near the coast and in NYC, but further inland, light snow is expected, though accumulations, if any, are uncertain at this time. More details on this clipper will be posted tomorrow or on Wednesday.

For Saturday, slightly warmer temperatures are possible as the cold air mass will be away from the area, however another storm will be organizing in the central US at that time. There is still a lot of uncertainty as the models have yet to reach a consistent solution, however at this time it is likely that the storm could be an intense one, with impacts ranging from heavy rainfall and strong winds to heavy snow north and west of the storm. While there is still time for trending left, most of the models show the storm inland, and at this time my first thoughts for this storm is an inland track with rain for the area, which if this scenario verifies, heavy rain and windy conditions could be possible. This is still subject to change, and it is possible that the models trend more west or east, though at this time a snowstorm is unlikely for NYC as a result of this storm. Stay tuned for more details on this storm over the next few days.

After this storm, however, it is likely to get much colder as an arctic air mass moves into the region. While it appears that the worst of the cold may stay to the west of the area, what the arctic air mass does mainly depends on the storm before it, so once the models reach a better agreement with the storm, they will also reach a better agreement with this arctic air mass. If what the latest models are showing, temperatures even colder than the ones we are now seeing may be possible, with widespread high temperatures in the 20s in the NYC area, however this is very uncertain and is subject to change. Stay tuned for more details.

Dec 5: Two Storm Potentials Next Weekend

Notes:

- A new poll has been opened for the potential December 12-14 storm and how it may affect the area. Please vote your thoughts in the poll, which will close on Friday.

The poll on the clipper that affected Virginia/North Carolina this morning ended on Friday, with the results below. The majority was correct in voting that there would be a snow-producing storm which would stay south of NYC. Here are the other results:

2 votes - No storm, dry and chilly
6 votes - Storm, snow stays south of NYC
2 votes - Storm, snow falls and accumulates in NYC

--------------------------------------------

Today was a mainly cloudy day across the area with scattered flurries observed. Temperatures as expected were colder than yesterday's highs, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s inland, mid 30s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 30s for Long Island/S CT. Low temperatures this morning busted too low due to the cloud cover, and as a result the forecast lows for tonight and Monday night are slightly warmer than previously expected.

The coldest conditions are expected on Wednesday and Thursday for the area, as a high pressure brings clear skies with the coldest temperatures of the arctic air mass taking place these days, leading to the potential of widespread low temperatures below 20 degrees away from NYC. By Friday, the cold will start to moderate, however in between this moderation of the cold and another potential arctic outbreak in the following week, there are two potential storms that may affect the area.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mostly cloudy day across the area. A breezy west wind is expected, with gusts over 30 mph at times. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s inland and in the mid to upper 30s for the rest of the area. Scattered snow showers are expected across the area, some of which may accumulate a little if they are heavy enough.

The windy conditions expected are going to be the result of a strong storm expected to hit Maine tonight into tomorrow with heavy snowfall, which is actually the same clipper that brought light snow to southern Virginia and North Carolina yesterday.


Tuesday - Thursday: Worst Of The Arctic Air Mass

On Tuesday, as the storm remains stationary near the northern Northeast, breezy conditions are expected again with mostly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than those of tomorrow, in the lower 30s inland, lower to mid 30s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 30s for Long Island/S CT.

On Wednesday, as the storm starts to have less of an influence of the area, less cloud cover is expected with less wind, but at the same time an even stronger arctic air mass will drop down from Canada, headed straight towards the Northeast. This will result in even colder high temperatures, in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland and lower to mid 30s for the rest of the area.

With less cloud cover and a colder air mass, Wednesday night will be the coldest night yet for the area. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 10s inland, and even a few lower 10s cannot be ruled out if there is less cloud cover than expected, mid 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, upper 10s to lower 20s for S CT, lower to mid 20s in Long Island, and mid 20s in NYC. Thursday will have similar temperatures to Wednesday with mostly to partly sunny skies.


Friday - Saturday: Light Rain/Snow Potential

By Friday, a weak Alberta Clipper is expected to move into the Great Lakes, which will help remove the cold air mass from the region. In the process of doing so, it will spread light precipitation into parts of the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast, and at this time is expected to track north of the area as there should not be as much suppression as we saw with yesterday's clipper. While this clipper may be warm enough that it rains closer to the coast, further inland there is the potential of snow or a mix, with the potential of light accumulations away from NYC according to the GFS model. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.

On Saturday and Sunday, slightly below average temperatures will continue, however by Sunday there is much more uncertainty with another potential storm in the central US that may affect the area between Sunday and Tuesday. The models are having a lot of difficulty handling the storm, and while it is possible that the storm could be an intense one as some models have been consistently showing, there is a lot of uncertainty with the track, which could range from an offshore storm scenario, to a coastal track with snow along Interstate 95 and NYC, to an inland storm track with rain and warmth for the area. Despite these uncertainties, it is likely that it should get much colder behind this storm as another arctic air mass drops on Sunday/Monday behind this potential storm. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame and what it might bring to the area.

Dec 4: Cold Week Ahead, Then Storm Potential

Today was a mostly cloudy day, and even some flurries were observed across parts of the area, with high temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area.

The radar image to the left from 9 PM today shows dry conditions across most of the region except for light precipitation in SE Virginia and eastern North Carolina. This precipitation is falling in the form of a snow/rain mix, and even though the precipitation weakened through the afternoon, early in the afternoon these light rain/snow showers were an impressive early season clipper bringing a widespread area of moderate snowfall from the Ohio Valley into the Virginia/North Carolina border.

This clipper is now moving offshore, however it will not exit the picture, as it will return by Monday, striking Maine as a powerful 960 mb low pressure, bringing heavy snowfall for Maine, while setting up the pattern for the coming week.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

**Note: There is a mistake with the high temperature label with the graphic below, it should say "33-39 degrees".**

Tomorrow will be a partly cloudy day across the area, with colder temperatures expected. A NW wind is expected, with breezy conditions at times. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s inland and in the mid to upper 30s for the rest of the area.

Low temperatures tomorrow night will be slightly warmer than those of tonight, but still cold, in the lower 20s inland, mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC and in Long Island/S CT, and in the lower 30s in NYC.


Monday - Thursday: Very Cold, Mainly Cloudy And Breezy

As previously mentioned, the clipper that brought light snowfall for the southern Mid Atlantic today will move offshore, then rapidly intensify while moving northwest towards Nova Scotia and Maine, hitting these areas as a 960 mb low pressure, the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane. While the winds won't be as strong, it will deliver heavy snowfall, some rain, and high winds to Maine on Monday, while it helps keep the cold air trapped over the East, leading to a large trough covering all of the eastern and central United States as shown in the scenario map yesterday.

This low pressure will be slow to leave, and as a result, will control the pattern through Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday are expected to have very similar conditions, with mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures in the lower to upper 30s, breezy conditions each day with winds gusting above 30 mph at times, and the potential of isolated snow showers.

On Wednesday, an arctic air mass stronger than the one present will move southeast out of Canada, but due to the pattern in place will be focused on the Northeast. While the core of this arctic air mass will be to the north of NYC, it will bring even colder conditions, and a high pressure moving in will allow for less cloud cover and less wind, therefore colder overnight temperatures. High temperatures for Wednesday and/or Thursday are expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area, with low temperatures potentially as low as the mid 10s inland, upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC and in S CT, lower to mid 20s in Long Island, and mid to upper 20s for NYC.


Friday - Sunday: Cold Relaxes, Clipper Brings Rain/Snow Potential

On Friday, after very cold morning temperatures, the cold air mass will begin to moderate as an Alberta Clipper approaches the Great Lakes, leading to slightly warmer temperatures returning to the area. There is still a lot of uncertainty with how this clipper behaves, ranging from a cold front on the ECMWF model to a snow band stalled over the immediate NYC area with 3-6 inches of snow on the GFS model, but as the cold will relax, the clipper will not be suppressed like today's clipper was, and in fact may track north of the area, and due to the cold air in place, may lead to rain/snow affecting the area between Friday night and Sunday. More details on this potential will be posted over the next few days.

For the longer range, those who are following the long range of the GFS/ECMWF models have seen them showing another potential storm around Tuesday the 14th, followed by another arctic outbreak. The arctic air outbreak is a possibility, as the models have been in agreement and nicely consistent with showing another arctic air mass directed over the Great Lakes/Northeast by this time frame, but whether another storm is involved with this and how is still uncertain. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.

Dec 3: Cold, Winter-Like Pattern To Last

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the area tonight except for Long Island/S CT.

---------------------------------------------

The first day of meteorological winter brought an end to the mild pattern we've been seeing in November that started back in March, and yesterday felt much more winter-like, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, upper 30s to mid 40s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 40s for Long Island/S CT, nothing in comparison to the 50s and 60s on Wednesday.. Today was another cold day, with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures slightly colder than yesterday, in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the entire area, which was slightly colder than originally expected.

With the pattern setting up, generally partly to mostly cloudy skies will remain in the area through at least Wednesday or Thursday, with the DC-NYC corridor being the only area out of the entire region to stay dry during this time frame, but the cold will be the main story, as temperatures will stay below average through the first half of December, if not even longer, with well below average temperatures also possible, the longest extent of below average temperatures the area has seen since January.

While there is uncertainty on the longer range beyond mid December, it is possible that December may bring the most sustained cold of the winter, with December being the main wintry month for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast as the winter outlook discussed. More on this will be discussed in the "Long Range Outlooks" page over the next 1-2 weeks.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mostly to partly sunny day across the area with a NW wind expected. Breezy conditions may be possible at times. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s inland with a few lower 40s possible and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the area.

Looking across the region, a weak Alberta Clipper will bring light to moderate snowfall to the southwestern parts of the Ohio Valley while moving southeast. While this clipper will stay well to the south of NYC, with the first snow of the winter falling in places such as southern Virginia, it will help set up the pattern for next week.


Saturday Night - Sunday: Snow In Virginia, Dry In NYC

Tomorrow night will again be mostly clear to partly cloudy, with even colder low temperatures, in the lower 20s inland, potentially upper 10s if there is less cloud cover than expected, lower to upper 20s N/W of NYC and in S CT, and upper 20s to lower 30s in NYC.

The Alberta Clipper previously mentioned will move through the Carolinas tomorrow night, bringing a light mixture of snow and rain to northern North Carolina and southern Virginia, where light snow accumulations are possible. Due to the strong blocking pattern, the clipper will not be able to move further north and affect places north of Washington DC. The clipper will move offshore by Sunday.

This clipper, however, will help pull in an even colder air mass into the area. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s inland and in the mid to upper 30s for the rest of the area, making it the first day of the winter with high temperatures below 40 degrees in parts of the area.


Monday - Tuesday: Mainly Cloudy, Cold And Breezy

On Sunday night, the clipper, which will be well offshore, will be forced to turn north and northwest again, and is expected to rapidly intensify in this time frame. By Monday morning/afternoon, the storm will strike Nova Scotia as a powerful 960 mb low pressure, equal to that of a Category 2 hurricane! A large trough meanwhile will set up, covering nearly all of the East Coast.

The storm will produce snow for Maine, however it will then slow down significant while moving WNW, with the cold air digging even deeper into the East. Monday and Tuesday will gradually become colder, with low temperatures remaining in the upper 10s to lower 30s across the area and highs in the lower to upper 30s. Due to the storm, mostly cloudy skies are expected with breezy conditions each day, and an isolated snow shower cannot be ruled out each day.


Wednesday - Thursday: Arctic Air's Deepest Extent

On Wednesday, the worst of the arctic air mass will affect the area as the storm starts to exit and leads to quieter conditions in the region. 850 mb temperatures are likely to reach -14c, which will lead to high temperatures likely in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area, with even NYC struggling to make it above the freezing mark. Low temperatures on Wednesday night could reach the mid to upper 10s inland, upper 10s to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s in NYC in the colder case scenario.


By Thursday and Friday, the cold air mass will start to moderate, however a storm coming out of the Great Lakes region may bring precipitation in the form of snow to the region, followed by another potential round of arctic air for the end of the weekend. Stay tuned for more details on the longer range.

Dec 1: Cold Pattern Settles In

With the start of meteorological winter being today, the pattern is currently in the process of becoming much more winter-like. Behind the storm that ended for the area this afternoon, temperatures are currently steadily dropping across the area, already being in the 30s and lower to mid 40s. The cold front is bringing in a much colder air mass into the region, with 850 mb temperature dropping into the -8c range as a trough moves into the region. Unlike the previous cold air masses that affected the area though, this trough will be here to stay through the first 10 days of December.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a partly sunny and much colder day, with a WNW wind expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, upper 30s to mid 40s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 40s for Long Island/S CT.

Overnight lows are expected to be slightly colder than those of tonight, especially in the eastern parts of the area, reaching the lower to mid 20s inland, mid to upper 20s for S CT and the N/W suburbs of NYC, upper 20s to lower 30s in Long Island, and in the lower to mid 30s in NYC.


Friday - Saturday: Cold, Dry

As the trough remains locked up over the area, temperatures are expected to be similar to those of tomorrow, but slightly warmer, with the warmest day over the next week supposed to be Saturday, with high temperatures only in the lower to mid 40s across most of the area.


Sunday: First Mid Atlantic Snow Event Stays South Of NYC

Two days ago, I talked about a potential clipper in my post, mentioning how given the pattern, it was likely to stay south of the area, with the best chance of snow in the central Mid Atlantic. Yesterday's models backed away from this, however the potential was not dead yet as the models were not consistent yet. Today's models returned to showing the clipper, however with the strong suppressing pattern, the clipper will stay south of NYC. There is uncertainty with where the clipper tracks and how strong it is, but it appears that the central Mid Atlantic has the best chance of seeing snowfall with light accumulations over an inch possible. No snow is expected for the area at this time, however I will continue to monitor this storm for any potential north trend. More details, as well as maps, will be posted on this storm over the next few days.

The storm is then expected to move offshore, but due to the blocking, will rapidly intensify and is expected to move northwest into Maine and Nova Scotia, where it could bring more snow. This will bring even colder air into the area for Monday and Tuesday, with high temperatures in the lower to upper 30s and low temperatures in the mid 10s to upper 20s possible. Afterwards, the cold may start to weaken slightly, but there is still a lot of uncertainty on this time frame. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame and what it may bring to the area.

Dec 1 Noon: Rain Ending

3:50 PM: The final round of heavy rain is now moving through Long Island and southern Connecticut, producing a wind-driven heavy rain, with wind gusts near or over 50 mph expected as well as some thunderstorms. The storm produced over an inch of rain for a good amount of the area, with consistent windy conditions throughout the day, gusting near/above 50 mph in the immediate NYC area, leading to some wind damage.

Temperatures were steadily rising for most of the day across the area, reaching the 60s in some places, and behind this line of heavy rain, a much colder air mass is moving in, leading to temperatures rapidly dropping behind the line of rain. This cold air mass will also help bring in dry conditions into the area, and will stay around for a while, leading to consistently cold temperatures lasting through the weekend and into next week, with highs in the lower to upper 30s and lows in the 10s and 20s expected at this time.

An update could be posted this evening, which would focus on the snow potential on Sunday from a clipper that will stay to the south of the area but may produce snow as far north as central NJ or the NYC area.