Aug 10 Morning, 2012: Storms Today, Tomorrow

**For the latest storm updates, please check the NYC Area Weather twitter posts to the right.**
3:25 PM: Eastern Suffolk county, Long Island is under a Tornado Warning.

Forecast Highlights:

- Storms, some heavy/strong, continue today and tomorrow
- Dry, seasonable conditions for Sunday/Monday
- Some storms possible for middle of next week
- Stronger cool down potential next weekend

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Thursday, August 9 Observations:

Scattered thunderstorms were observed across the region and in parts of the area on August 9th; the highlights of the day were a strong thunderstorm over parts of Orange county, as well as a strong thunderstorm that stalled near the Newark area, just west of Staten Island, during the afternoon hours. Warm temperatures were observed, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further north/west, and the mid to upper 80s across Long Island and southern CT.



Today and Tomorrow: More Rain, Storms

With a low pressure developing and stalling near southeast Michigan, widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region today and tonight. The latest radar, posted to the left, shows rain and thunderstorms in eastern PA and Maryland approaching the area. The area of rain and thunderstorms in Maryland will move into the area late this morning into the early afternoon hours, especially from NYC and further west; these storms will be capable of producing heavy rain with localized flash flooding possible, while some of the storms will be strong/severe, producing strong winds and possibly hail. Following the morning and early afternoon round of rain and storms, additional storms, some of them strong/locally severe, are expected to develop west of the area, especially over PA and NY, although it is questionable whether evening/early night severe weather can spread into the area or not, especially given less instability with widespread cloud cover. Temperatures will remain cooler than average due to the cloud cover and rain, likely peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area

The outlook is a bit more uncertain for tonight and tomorrow, as the models, especially the NAM, have lost the heavy rain signal that was originally shown for tonight into tomorrow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight and on Saturday, producing locally heavy rain above 1-2 inches, although the original outlook calling for occasional thunderstorms persisting through most of tonight and Saturday may need to be revised later this afternoon. Additional updates will be posted later today regarding the storms and the short range outlook.


Sunday - Next Week: Generally Seasonable, Some Storms

The cold front will be slow to move through, with partly cloudy skies expected for Sunday with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s across the area, passing 85 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area. Overnight lows on Sunday and Monday night will be cooler than observed recently, dropping into the lower half of the 60s for a large part of the area and into the mid to upper 50s inland, towards NW NJ and SE NY. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Monday with high temperatures ending up slightly warmer, in the mid to upper 80s for most of the area and the lower to mid 80s in Long Island and southern CT.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, although at this time this does not appear to be a widespread thunderstorm event. Temperatures are expected to remain generally in the mid to upper 80s range. By late next week and next weekend, however, the forecast becomes more complicated as strong ridging spreads into Greenland while a stronger low pressure likely develops towards central Canada. The ECMWF model is currently the most bullish regarding the Greenland ridging, showing a strong block resulting in a strong cool down dropping into the northern US. While the ECM is likely exaggerating the scenario towards next weekend, the potential is there for a stronger cool down towards next weekend, which is also when the next risk of rain may take place.