Aug 14, 2012: Cooling Down Slightly Next Weekend

Forecast Highlights:

- Scattered storms to continue today, tomorrow
- Additional storms expected Fri/Sat with cold front
- Slight cool down for Sun-early week; sub-80 highs possible
- Warmer temperatures for late next week possible

------------------------------------------------------------------

5-Day Forecast Changes

The poll has been closed; the clickable map (Google Maps) with text for each forecast area is now the new 5-Day Forecast format. A text-only version of the forecast is available in case there are issues with viewing the map.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Observations for August 12 and 13 can be found in the bottom of the post.

Tuesday, August 14 Observations:

The day started out with increasing cloud cover as an area of strong thunderstorms in eastern Pennsylvania slowly moved east, affecting the western parts of the area with locally heavy rain in the late morning before the storms weakened as they reached the immediate NYC area. Following the dissipation of the late morning storms, the area stayed mostly dry through the rest of the day while scattered thunderstorms formed in other parts of the region. Temperatures were cooler than the previous days due to the cloud cover and storms, peaking in the upper 70s inland and the lower to mid 80s across the rest of the area.


Tonight - Tomorrow: Storms to continue

Following the morning storms in the western parts of the area, mainly cloudy skies are still covering the area as of the late afternoon hours, with most of the area still dry while scattered storms are forming to the west and south. Most of the storm activity this evening and tonight will remain to the west and north of the area, although isolated storms are still expected tonight especially north/west of NYC. Another round of scattered storms is expected on Wednesday afternoon and evening with highs reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area.


Thursday - Beyond: More Storms, Then Cooler

Dry conditions will briefly return for Thursday with mostly sunny skies and highs reaching the lower to mid 80s across the area. The next cold front will enter the region on Friday as a strong trough drops into the central US, bringing widespread cool temperatures, while slowing down as it approaches the coast. Partly cloudy skies are expected on Friday with temperatures warmer, peaking in the mid to upper 80s for most of the area with lower 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area. Cloud cover will increase by the afternoon/evening hours, with scattered storms expected overnight and during Saturday as the cold front comes through. Cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday, although there is still some uncertainty regarding exactly how cool; for now, I put highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in the forecast, although should the cloudier/wetter scenario verify for Saturday, temperatures would end up a few degrees cooler than currently expected.

A cooler air mass will move into the region behind the cold front for Sunday into the first half of next week, although the trough will remain centered near southern Canada and the north central US, failing to move directly over the region with the western Atlantic ridging holding steady in place, keeping the area near the eastern edge of the cool air mass. Cool temperatures are expected for Sunday and Monday, with morning lows in the mid 50s to low 60s for most of the area, slightly warmer in NYC, and daytime highs peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s. A gradual moderation in temperatures is likely throughout the rest of next week back well into the 80s.



------------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DAILY OBSERVATIONS:


Sunday, August 12 Observations:

As a low pressure in the Great Lakes drifted out of the region, mostly to partly sunny skies returned to the area with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s inland, mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the low to mid 80s in Long Island and southern CT. Temperatures inland were slightly cooler than the previous day, while the rest of the area had similar temperatures. The coolest high was 81 degrees, tied with New London, CT and Andover, NJ; the highest temperature was 88 degrees, tied with Teterboro and Newark, NJ, and LaGuardia Airport.


Monday, August 13 Observations:

Mostly sunny skies were observed again across the area with temperatures similar to those of Sunday, reaching the lower ot mid 80s inland, mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid 80s in most of Long Island/S CT. The coolest high observed was 80 degrees in New London, CT; the highest temperature was 88 degrees in Newark, NJ.