Nov 5, 2011: Dry, Mild Start To Next Week

With a strong trough moving into the region, cold temperatures were observed last night, dropping as low as 23 degrees in Sussex, NJ. High temperatures today were chilly as well, peaking in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and the lower 50s across the rest of the area. Temperatures are already dropping across the area, and are in the lower to mid 30s in most areas north and west of NYC, although temperatures are expected to remain mainly steady through the overnight hours with some additional cooling from where they are now.

A larger ridge will build into the region tomorrow and into early next week, resulting in gradually warming temperatures; by Tuesday, parts of the immediate NYC area may reach the upper 60s. Temperatures won't get warmer than that, however, as a cold front and a low pressure approach the region, bringing widespread rain across the area on Thursday and Thursday night, possibly lasting into Friday. Although a colder pattern is not expected to develop immediately after this storm, a gradual turn towards less frequent warmth is expected behind this storm.


Tomorrow's Outlook:


Sunday will bring sunny skies across the area once again, and with SW winds expected and warmer 850 mb temperatures, the area will warm up again, with high temperatures expected to reach the mid 50s across most of the area, with a few upper 50s in parts of the immediate NYC area, especially towards NE NJ.


Monday - Wednesday: Warming Up


With the strong high pressure remaining stuck over the region, warmer temperatures will gradually move in. Mainly sunny skies are expected again for Monday with temperatures warming up into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area, with mid 60s in parts of NE NJ. The warmest temperatures are expected on Tuesday, with 850 mb temperatures near 10-12 degrees celsius along with partly sunny skies. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 60s across most of the area, with upper 60s expected in parts of the immediate NYC area, getting very close to the 70 degree mark. With SE winds likely for Wednesday, temperatures will slightly cool down, peaking in the lower to mid 60s across most of the area with the warmest temperatures to the west of NYC.


Thursday - Friday: Next Storm Affects The Area


The low pressure that affected the Mid Atlantic yesterday will come into play once again by late next week, bringing rain across the area. Yesterday's low pressure drifted offshore today and will remain stationary south of Bermuda, but will drift to the NW again by the middle of next week, sending moisture into the region on Thursday as it moves towards the region. As a result, widespread showers are expected to fall across the region on Thursday and Thursday night, and although no widespread heavy rain is expected at this time, at least 1/2 to 1 inch of rain may fall in parts of the area. Afterwards, there is uncertainty with Friday's outlook, as some model runs develop a stronger and slower secondary low, extending the moderate rain through Friday afternoon before moving it out of the area, and other models quickly move the storm out with dry conditions for Friday. At this time, I expect the rain to continue through at least Friday morning with drier conditions for the rest of Friday, but the forecast is still subject to change, although should the storm affect the area on Friday, widespread heavy rain is unlikely. Stay tuned for more information on the forecast for late next week.

Behind this storm, drier conditions will return for next weekend along with a colder air mass, potentially  bringing high temperatures back into the upper 40s to mid 50s range across most of the area, although it could end up slightly colder or warmer depending on Friday's scenario. This trough won't be sustained, and warmer temperatures are likely to return by the late weekend/early next week, although with a -NAO and a weakening -PNA pattern expected, this potential second warm up is not expected to be as strong as the upcoming warm spell at this time. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range outlooks, including more thoughts on what the region may see towards the end of November.