May 15, 2011 Storm Updates

Storm Updates:

7:00 PM: Some thunderstorms are currently forming in parts of the area, especially west of NYC. The main storm is currently in Warren County and is moving NNE, taking it just west of Newton, NJ over the next 15-30 minutes. This storm is capable of producing heavy rainfall, small hail and gusty winds. Several moderate intensity thunderstorms are moving through Somerset county and will enter Morris county within the next 1/2 hour, producing heavy rain and thunder. There are an additional 3 small storms in Hudson, Union and Bergen counties moving NNE, producing heavy rain and thunder as well.

The main storms are currently near SE Pennsylvania and Washington DC. These storms should begin to weaken by the time that they reach the area, though they will still be capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds, especially from NYC and further west. Additional storm updates will be posted if necessary, otherwise the next update will be posted tonight, discussing the heavy rainfall for Monday night through Wednesday night.

----------------------------------------------------

3:40 PM: This morning, a thunderstorm brought rain to most of the area, especially in NE NJ. While most of the area saw up to 1/4 inch, north central and NE NJ picked up 1/2 to 1 inch, with isolated locations near central Bergen County ending up with as much as 2 inches of rain. Most of the steady rain, however, stayed to the north of the area, where the low pressure near SW Pennsylvania produced a widespread moderate to heavy rain in the central and northern NE which is still ongoing. Since then, as most of the steady rain stayed to the north and west of the area, mainly cloudy skies continued with isolated showers at most, though more rain is expected tonight as a result of thunderstorms forming in Virginia.

Thunderstorms are currently forming in western Virginia south of the low pressure, and are expected to intensify and become more widespread, with some of these storms in Virginia reaching low-end severe levels. The latest short range models are indicating that this rain will stay west of NYC, only getting as far east as NW NJ, but using these models to determie exactly where these storms will end up is tricky to determine, as these models failed to show this morning's heavy thunderstorms until they actually happened. At this time, I am expecting some showers and thunderstorms later this evening into the early overnight hours, especially from NYC and further west, but these storms are unlikely to reach severe levels by the time that they reach the area.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Widespread moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms are still expected from Monday night through Wednesday, and while this will not be a solid area of steady, consistent moderate to heavy rain, storms will frequently move through the area, producing locally heavy rainfall. By the time that the steady rain ends on Thursday, total rainfall amounts including today and tomorrow will end up in the 2 to 4 inch range across most of the area, with locally higher amounts possible, potentially getting as high as 6 inches of rain in isolated parts of the area. Tonight's update will discuss this in more details, as well as the expectation for scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through next weekend but with warmer temperatures.