April 17, 2011: Storm Ends, Warmth Returns

***Reminder: This blog is still on vacation. A few more brief updates may be posted, though the next full update will be posted on Saturday, 4/23.***

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April 18 Update: A storm currently developing in the Rockies that is expected to bring yet another widespread severe weather outbreak to the central US and the Ohio Valley will move into the area on Wednesday. Initially, it appeared that the warm front would be able to move through, bringing temperatures into the lower to mid 70s for NYC with severe weather overnight, however it appears that it will be difficult for the warm front to get north of central NJ, and it may fail to reach NYC.

Clouds and showers are expected during the first half of the day with drier conditions later on, though how warm it gets and whether the cloud cover clears depends on the warm front. The NAM model is likely too cold, not even bringing NYC to the 50 degree mark, and at least lower to mid 60s are expected at this time for NYC, though it is possible that it may be slightly warmer or colder depending on where the warm front ends up. Some showers are expected overnight as the front moves through, though most of the severe weather on Wednesday night will stay to the south of NYC.

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The storm that has affected the US over the last three days, producing 241 tornadoes from Oklahoma to North Carolina, some of them deadly, and producing a widespread heavy rain event for the Northeastern US has finally left the region, with clearing skies and dry conditions expected for today. Wind gusts were generally in the 40-55 mph range across most of the area, though rainfall amounts from NYC and further west exceeded the forecast, with widespread reports of 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain in northern NJ. West Milford, NJ, even reported slightly over 4.5 inches of rain.

Flooding is expected to remain an issue in the western parts of the area for now, though more rain is expected this week. Showers are expected to start affecting the area on Monday night, continuing through Tuesday night. Locally moderate rain may be possible, though no significant rainfall is expected. A storm moving through the Great Lakes on Wednesday will bring warmer 850 mb temperatures into the region, though cloud cover and rain may prevent temperatures from getting too warm. High temperatures are expected to reach at least the lower-mid 70s in NYC at this time, though it is possible that temperatures may be cooler or warmer. Thursday will bring cooler temperatures after the cold front moves through, and the next storm is expected to affect the area around Sunday, 4/24.