Feb 9, 2011: Break From Cold Next Week

Note: The 5-Day Forecast page was updated tonight.

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Today brought mostly cloudy skies to the area as a weak storm that was originally modeled to be a large snowstorm coming up the coast several days ago is bringing some light snow south of the area, though far eastern Long Island may see some snow showers. Temperatures were cold this morning, in the lower 0s for the interior parts of the area and in the mid 10s for New York City, with high temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s across the area, at least 10 to 15 degrees below the average for this time for the year.

The cold will continue through tomorrow and tomorrow night, when low temperatures should be similar to those of this morning, however afterwards we will see a change in the pattern, with the return of warmer temperatures, and temperatures may even reach and pass the 50 degree mark by the end of next week.


Tonight And Tomorrow: Storm Passes To South

Several days ago, the model guidance was suggesting the potential for a strong storm that would move up the coast, bringing heavy snowfall to the Interstate 95 corridor before drawing in an extremely cold air mass with record low temperatures. That possibility was one that needed to be watched, however given that it was in the longer range of the models, a change in the models was expected, as models rarely tend to continue showing the same solutions from the long range through the short range without any changes.

As we went into the medium range, there was a change with the model solutions, however this change was to show a much weaker storm staying out to sea. The models trended away from a phased storm, and the new expectation was for a weak low pressure to remain well south of the area. Even then, some models had difficulty handling this storm, especially the GFS, which 2-3 days ago failed to even show a storm, only showing isolated rain/snow showers for the Southeast. Since then, the models have trended further north and west, a typical trend which we observed in the short range with storms this winter, but this is still not a trend big enough to bring snow to the area except for far eastern Long Island.


For the rest of tonight, we will see mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with light snow showers possible for far eastern Long Island, with the storm bringing light snow to the southern and central Mid Atlantic. Low temperatures will not be as cold due to the cloud cover, in the lower to mid 10s inland and in the mid 10s to mid 20s for the rest of the area.

Tomorrow will bring clearing skies to the area, with high temperatures similar to today, in the mid to upper 20s inland and the upper 20s to lower 30s for the rest of the area. A WNW wind is expected.


Friday And Saturday: Warming Up

Since the start of January, the area has seen temperatures consistently below average, with only a few days with temperatures near or above average, being the warmer temperatures we saw on Sunday and Monday. We will be seeing a pattern change over the next few days, however, that will make near to above average temperatures more frequent at least for now.

Tomorrow night will still bring cold temperatures for the area, with lows in the lower 0s inland and in the mid 10s for NYC, however Friday will bring warmer temperatures, in the lower 30s inland and the lower to mid 30s for the rest of the area as 850 mb temperatures warm up and a SW wind develops. On Saturday, as a southwest wind continues, high temperatures will warm up even more, into the lower to upper 30s across the area. Overnight lows will be rather mild in comparison to the current low temperatures, in the 20s across the area, but with increasing clouds.


Sunday - Monday: Weak Clipper Brings More Warmth

A weak clipper is expected to pass to the north of the area on Sunday, bringing light to moderate snow for the Northeast, however this clipper will push out the cold in the area even more. Other than isolated rain showers, a southwest wind is expected with mostly cloudy skies, and high temperatures will warm up into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. Monday will bring partly cloudy skies but with even warmer temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 40s across most of the area, and a few upper 40s cannot be ruled out.


Calm weather is expected for next week, however another warm up, even stronger than the Sunday/Monday one, will be on its way for the end of next week. Stay tuned for more information on the second warm up with tomorrow's update.