Oct 16, 2010: Cold Spell Potential Next Friday

Today was a partly sunny and windy day, with highs ranging from the upper 50s inland to the lower 60s in the immediate NYC area. The winds are calming down, and some frost is possible tonight in the interior with lows in the mid 30. From now until next weekend, however, cold temperatures will be the main issue.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

As the trough exits and another one approaches, the area will see slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures, leading to warmer temperatures. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 60s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid 60s for Long Island/S CT.

Monday - Wednesday Outlook:

A trough will move into the Northeast on Monday, and while it will not dig very far south, it will be quite strong, bringing highs into the 40s for the interior Northeast. The area will be in the southern end of the trough, with 850 mb temperatures near zero, which in comparison today also had 850 mb temperatures near 0 degrees celsius. This will lead to high temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area on Monday.

The cold front will stall to the south of the area, in West Virginia and Virginia, and a wave of low pressure is expected to form along this stalled front and move towards Virginia and Washington DC. This will bring a wide area of moderate rain in Virginia, New Jersey and southern New England. As this will be a cold storm, some snow is possible on Tuesday morning for the Catskills and NE PA, and if the colder case scenario verifies, some flakes may even be possible for the higher elevations of Sussex county in NJ and Orange County in NY. There is uncertainty on where the storm ends up, as it could be suppressed, but at least 1/2 inch of rain could be possible out of this storm, with high temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s due to the cloud cover and rain. Stay tuned for more details.

Wednesday will be drier as the storm moves offshore with an isolated shower possible. High temperatures will be warmer than those of Tuesday, in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday - Saturday: Significant Cold Spell?

Yesterday, I mentioned the potential of a significant cold spell moving into the Northeast. A low pressure near the Great Lakes will bring a cold front into the Northeast on Thursday, and from there, the cold front may dig south into the Mid Atlantic, bringing a much colder air mass for Friday and Saturday. There is uncertainty if this does end up being the case as this is in the longer range and the models can still change, but a negative NAO/AO and a positive PNA hint that we could in fact see a trough move into the Northeast, and if the current models verify, high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s and lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s could be possible, with widespread frost and freeze. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame and what it could bring.

Beyond Saturday, there is still a lot of uncertainty, however it is possible that a warm up could take place by the late weekend to early week.