Mar 31, 2013: Early April Freeze This Week

Forecast Highlights:

More cloud cover was observed today with temperatures again in the 50s as a weak storm affected the area with light rain, generally under 1/4 inch. Warmer temperatures are expected again on Monday, but with a trough expected to return for most of the week with temperatures again colder than average, dropping below freezing overnight for most of the area. The cold pattern overall is gradually weakening, however, with temperatures gradually trending warmer towards the longer range.

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This Week: Colder Again

A brief warmth surge is expected on Monday ahead of a cold front, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs ranging from the mid 50s in western areas to the upper 50s-low 60s from NYC and further south/east. Due to the cold front moving through, temperatures will peak earlier in the day than usual, with temperatures cooling down into the 40s by the late afternoon and evening hours.

A strong trough will move in for the majority of the week, once again resulting in colder than average temperatures. Tuesday is expected to be the coldest day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 30s-low 40s inland and the low-mid 40s for the rest of the area. Overnight lows are especially expected to be cold, with widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected overnight in the 20s across most of the area, while dropping into the low 30s in NYC. Similar temperatures are expected for Wednesday, with temperatures on Thursday warming up into the mid to upper 40s, approaching 50 degrees near NYC.


Friday - Next Weekend: More Seasonable, Friday Storm Potential

By late next week and the weekend, the persistent trough pattern is expected to weaken, with more ridging towards the central US. The region is not expected to completely break from this pattern, however, especially with another significant block expected over Greenland and northern Canada, which while unsupportive of another persistent cold pattern compared to that of mid-late March, is still enough to keep the region near the edge of the cooler air masses while limiting the duration and northern extent of warmth surges. Some of the earlier models suggested a warm up by this time frame, but this no longer seems to be the case with a coastal low likely to develop on Friday into early Saturday. The 6z GFS was the outlier solution, showing a major nor'easter, while the rest of the models are generally siding with a weaker and further south storm, ranging from either no impacts in the area aside from increased cloud cover, to further north solutions bringing occasional rain. As this is still several days away, additional changes are expected with the models, and it is still possible the storm mostly stays to the south, although the potential is there for rain to affect the area on Friday into early Saturday. More information will be posted on this possibility over the next few days.

Temperatures are expected to be colder on Friday depending on where the storm ends up, with highs likely into the lower 50s range on Saturday. By Sunday, a weak wave of low pressure is likely to track through the northern US; there is uncertainty on the exact track, but based on the overall setup, a brief surge of warmth with highs over 60 degrees is likely south of the storm, which based on the latest models would include the area as well. Beyond next weekend, the longer range models show signs of a more widespread warm up into next week, but with the region potentially near the northern end. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.