April 29, 2013: Drier, Warmer Trend Expected This Week

Forecast Highlights:

With a slow pattern continuing across the region, scattered showers were observed in the area today with temperatures mostly in the 50s. These showers will slowly shift south on Tuesday, exiting overnight as sunnier and dry conditions take hold for the rest of the week through next weekend, with temperatures warming back up into the 60s and possibly the 70s north of NYC.

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Tonight - Wednesday: Slowly Clearing

A high pressure remains placed over Atlantic Canada, with scattered showers across the region as shown on the radar above. These showers have focused mostly to the west and south of NYC; southwestern parts of the area have approached 1/4 inch of rain today, while Long Island and southern CT observed mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated showers especially closer to NYC. As the high pressure gradually shifts southwest, these showers will be forced south as well, slowly exiting the area through Tuesday and Tuesday night with sunnier conditions returning for Wednesday.

Today's temperatures were closer to yesterday's ECM than the GFS, with highs mostly in the mid 50s west of NYC, mid to upper 50s in NYC, and upper 50s to near 60 east of NYC. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today, although the temperature outlook depends on how fast the showers exit; the latest models are trending faster with this, showing most of the area except for western NJ dry by the afternoon. For today's outlook, I slightly revised temperatures upwards and decreased cloud cover from NYC and further east, with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 60s away from the coast, while western parts of the area are expected to be mostly cloudy to cloudy with isolated showers and highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Mostly to partly sunny skies are expected on Wednesday with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 50s to mid 60s in Long Island with a light ESE wind.


Thursday - Weekend: More Sunshine, Warmer Temps

As yesterday's discussion mentioned, by late next week a cold front is expected to move through eastern Canada, while a mid level low tracks southwest from Greenland to approximately New Jersey's or the Delmarva Peninsula's latitude, shifting the ridging aloft and surface high pressure further south. This will warm temperatures in the region on Thursday, temporarily cooling down on Friday and Saturday with the mid level low offshore to the east but likely warming up again towards Sunday into early next week. Meanwhile, a cutoff low will develop over the central US, with uncertainty regarding the location where the low becomes cut off and when it will reach the region.

Temperatures will warm up on Thursday across the area, reaching the upper 60s to low 70s from NYC and further north/west and the low to upper 60s in Long Island/S CT, but cooling down on Friday into the upper 50s to low 60s for eastern areas and low-mid 60s from NYC and further north/west, with mostly sunny skies expected to continue. Temperatures are likely to warm up over the weekend, at least into the mid to upper 60s away from the coast on Saturday, with more widespread mid-upper 60s and possibly low 70s on Sunday, with the Friday-Sunday temperature outlook subject to some changes. As previously mentioned, the main uncertainty at this time is regarding the timing of the cutoff low; the latest models show dry conditions lasting through at least early next week, with rain returning towards the middle of next week, although this is still subject to change. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.