April 22, 2013: Slightly Warmer For Weds, Late Week

Forecast Highlights:

A weak low pressure is expected to develop and track offshore tonight and tomorrow, with more sunshine for western areas and scattered showers for eastern areas. Temperatures will briefly warm up well into the 60s north and west of NYC on Wednesday with a weak cold front overnight producing scattered showers as temperatures remain warmer than the early week but near to slightly cooler than average through the late week and next weekend.

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Tonight - Wednesday: Some Rain

As of this morning, a strong 1044mb high pressure was located to the northeast of New England. As this high pressure continues to shift northeast, a weak coastal low pressure will develop tonight off the southern Mid Atlantic coast, then track to the NNE on Tuesday, brushing eastern Long Island and southeastern New England with cloudy skies and scattered showers. The resulting NE flow along with cloud cover for Tuesday will keep temperatures mostly in the low to mid 50s in Long Island and southern CT both today and tomorrow, with a breezy east wind today and NE wind on Tuesday at 10-20 mph, locally 25 mph, with gusts up to at least 30-35 mph. In between the coastal low and an approaching cold front from another major Midwest snowstorm, a narrow area of high pressure will extend into locations north and west of NYC, with partly cloudy skies expected with highs in the mid to upper 50s. A generally light E wind of 5-15 mph is expected today, shifting to the NE on Tuesday before becoming calm overnight.

The aforementioned cold front will reach the region on Wednesday, with calm or light north wind in the morning transitioning to south at 5-15 mph. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs in the mid to upper 60s north and west of NYC, mid 60s in NYC, and the upper 50s to low 60s in Long Island and southern CT. The cold front will move through overnight; while most of the rain is expected to weaken over PA and NY states, scattered showers are still expected for the area especially after 8-10 PM.


Thursday - Beyond: Generally Seasonable

Behind the cold front, temperatures will fail to significantly cool down, ending up warmer than the early week, at least near to slightly below average. Partly cloudy skies are expected on Thursday, with more cloud cover in Long Island and S CT where scattered showers are likely to persist through the morning or possibly the early afternoon, with highs reaching the upper 50s to low 60s from NYC and further north/west and the mid to upper 50s in Long Island/S CT. A high pressure is expected for Friday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60s across the area. Mostly sunny skies are expected to continue into Saturday with highs in the mid 60s.

Uncertainty increases for Sunday into early next week depending on a weak system that may bring some rain for the region. The GFS is the most bullish with this feature, showing clouds and showers for Saturday night through Sunday and Monday with highs back into the 50s, while the CMC/DGEX show this dissipating before reaching the region with continued partly cloudy skies and highs in the low-mid 60s. The ECM shows this reaching the area but not until Monday morning. At this time, I am siding with continued dry conditions through Sunday followed by a chance of light rain for Sunday night and Monday, although this part of the outlook is still subject to change given that this is nearly a week away. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range outlook.