Mar 2, 2012 Brief Update

Forecast Overview:


- Occasional showers, locally heavy, will continue tonight, along with some rumbles of thunder possible later tonight. The rain will end by Saturday morning, with clearing skies for the afternoon and temperatures reaching the lower to mid 50s across most of the area.

- The latest model guidance has trended west with the low pressure on Sunday, with the NAM keeping light rain just off the New Jersey coast. There is a lack of much amplification, so the storm is still expected to stay mostly offshore, but mostly cloudy skies are becoming likely for Sunday, with the most cloud cover in the eastern parts of the area towards Long Island/southern CT, where isolated showers or flurries may perhaps be observed. Due to the increased cloud cover, forecast temperatures have also been slightly lowered into the lower to mid 40s, although parts of the immediate NYC area may pass 45 degrees.

- Monday and Tuesday will be the coldest days with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. The coldest temperatures are expected for Monday night, with lows in the 10s for some, if not most places away from NYC. Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions are expected for both days.

- A ridge will begin to build by Wednesday and Thursday, but an approaching cold front and trough will prevent warmth from becoming established with this ridge. Temperatures on Wednesday will rise into the upper 40s to lower 50s for most of the area, with Thursday and/or Friday likely to be the warmest days, both with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area, although Thursday may be slightly warmer with highs closer to 65 degrees in NYC should the warmer case scenario verify. The cold front is likely to move through around late Thursday, with cooler but not very cold temperatures returning for next weekend with highs likely returning into the 40s.