Mar 14, 2012: Short Break From Warmth

Forecast Highlights:


- Strong sea breeze tomorrow keeps NYC in 50s, coastal areas in 40s
- Slightly warmer for Friday, some showers expected
- Slow warm up through Tuesday, highs climbing gradually into low 70s
- Peak of warmth likely mid-late next week; 80 degrees still a potential


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Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated only for the immediate NYC area tonight. A full 5-Day Forecast for the entire area will be posted on Thursday afternoon.

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As a cold front moved through the area, temperatures slightly cooled down further west, but due to a WNW wind, eastern areas were much warmer today. Mainly sunny skies were observed with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s in northern NJ, SE NY and NYC, with Long Island and southern CT, even near the coast, reaching the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

A back door cold front began to move through New England earlier today and is moving towards the area, which will result in more clouds and much colder temperatures for tomorrow. The chilly temperatures will gradually moderate between Friday and Tuesday of next week but not getting very warm just yet, with the gradual warming trend accompanied by some showers on Friday. There is still uncertainty going into next week, but the peak of the warmth could take place mid-late next week, and should the warmer case scenario verify, parts of the area may reach 80 degrees.


Tomorrow's Outlook:


As previously mentioned, a back door cold front moved through eastern New England earlier today, which resulted in a quick drop in temperatures and an increase in cloud cover. The colder temperatures, accompanied by mainly cloudy skies, are currently moving southwest and are expected to spread across the area after at least 2-4 AM tonight, resulting in a noticeable drop in temperatures along with an increase in cloud cover.

With a SE flow becoming established by tomorrow afternoon, much colder temperatures are expected. The cloud cover will remain stuck near the coastal areas and most of Long Island/southern CT, where cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are expected, with partly to possibly mostly cloudy skies north and west of NYC. A relatively sharp temperature gradient will set up tomorrow; highs will reach the lower 60s in far NW NJ and western Orange county, mid 50s to lower 60s across the rest of northern NJ and SE NY, lower to mid 50s in NYC, possibly a little warmer further north away from the coast, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s in most of Long Island and southern CT, with the immediate coast peaking near the mid to possibly upper 40s.
With the SE wind, temperatures are expected to begin dropping for most places as early as 2-4 PM tomorrow.


Friday - Monday: Slowly Warming Up


A weak low pressure will move through the region on Friday, once again preventing temperatures from warming up, although temperatures are expected to be warmer than those of tomorrow. There is some slight uncertainty with the forecast for Friday regarding where the temperature boundary sets up; the 12z ECM shows lower 60s in NYC, the GFS shows mid to upper 50s, and the latest NAM run suddenly went much warmer, showing mid 60s. At this time, I am leaning a little towards the cooler solutions, expecting highs to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across northern NJ, SE NY and NYC away from the coast, with Long Island, southern CT, and coastal parts of NYC reaching the lower to mid 50s, possibly upper 50s closer to NYC. The immediate coast may fail to reach 50 degrees again. Isolated showers are also expected on Friday and Friday night, with some showers perhaps locally moderate.

The weekend is expected to be mostly to partly sunny with slightly warmer temperatures, although an incoming high pressure from Canada will prevent the warmth from surging into the region at this point. High temperatures for both days are likely to reach the lower to mid 60s for northern NJ and SE NY, with upper 50s to lower 60s in NYC and mid to upper 50s across most of Long Island and southern CT. Monday's outlook is a little uncertain due to the potential for rain, although at least at this time it appears that Monday should be warmer, with mid to upper 60s north and west of NYC, mid 60s in NYC, and upper 50s to lower 60s in most of Long Island/southern CT. The temperature outlook for the weekend and Monday is still subject to slight changes.


Tuesday - Friday: Peak Of Warmth Possible


With the high pressure likely to drift south of the area by Tuesday, a SSW wind direction could still limit the warmth, although temperatures are likely to begin rising on Tuesday, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s north and west of NYC, possibly in the mid 70s in the warmer case scenario, with upper 60s in NYC and lower to mid 60s in most of Long Island and southern CT. By Wednesday and Thursday, however, assuming that the high pressure is located to the south of the area to produce a SW/WSW wind, along with an unusually warm air mass for March and a large ridge in place, the warmest temperatures are likely to take place. There is still some uncertainty with the exact temperatures, which depends on the location of the high pressure and the ridge, although it does appear that temperatures may surge well into the 70s away from the coast, and in the warmer case scenario where the high pressure is south of the area with SW winds and a favorable ridge location, temperatures would be able to reach 80 degrees in parts of the area. At this time, the 80 degrees is still a potential, not a certain forecast, and it is still a possibility that a cooler outcome may verify with temperatures reaching the mid 70s at most. Stay tuned for more information on the outlook for late next week and the warmth potential.