Mar 17, 2012: Warmer Late Next Week

Forecast Highlights:


- More clouds, mild, scattered showers for Sunday-Tuesday
- More sunshine, warmth return for late next week
- Slight cool down but no significant cold next weekend


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With the cutoff low from the late week far away from the region, today brought warmer temperatures across the area, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s in NW NJ/SE NY, lower to mid 60s in NE NJ and SE NY, upper 50s to lower 60s in NYC, and the mid 50s to lower 60s across most of Long Island and southern CT. Mostly sunny skies were observed north and west of NYC, with observations showing more clouds towards Long Island and southern CT.

Clouds will continue to spread across the area tonight with developing fog by Sunday morning, although cloud cover will clear for most places by the late morning hours before increasing again overnight. Isolated showers and cloud cover on Monday and Tuesday will keep temperatures slightly cooler but still well above average, with the peak of the warmth expected for the second half of next week, when temperatures are expected to reach the mid 70s north and west of NYC, possibly getting up to 80 degrees in the warmer case scenario.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

After the clouds and fog begin to clear on Sunday morning, SSW/south winds are expected to develop. This will allow the western half of the area to quickly warm up, while the eastern half of the area sees colder temperatures and more cloud cover. High temperatures are expected to reach the lower 70s across most of northern NJ and SE NY, upper 60s to lower 70s in the north/west suburbs of NYC, lower to upper 60s in NYC, and mid 50s to lower 60s across most of Long Island/southern CT except for the immediate coast, which is expected to see highs in the lower 50s.


Next Week: Slowly Warming Up


Temperatures are expected to continue to warm up on Monday, reaching the lower to mid 70s inland, mid 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 50s to mid 60s across most of Long Island/southern CT. Scattered showers will approach the area, however, and partly cloudy skies with isolated showers are expected. Mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and possible fog will continue through Tuesday, with colder temperatures expected on Tuesday. There is some uncertainty with how cold temperatures will be, although at this time it appears that most of, if not all of the area should fail to reach 70 degrees, with highs in the lower to mid 60s in NYC. Tuesday's forecast though is still subject to slight changes.

With the scattered showers out of the way, the scattered showers are likely to end by Tuesday night, with mostly to partly sunny skies expected between Wednesday and Friday. Due to the clearing of the cloud cover, along with the warmer air mass starting to gradually shift southeast, from the Great Lakes and northern New England towards the area, the peak of the warm spell is expected to take place in this time frame.

Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday are still expected to struggle to warm up for parts of the area, especially near the coast where temperatures will likely stay in the 50s and 60s, but it appears at this time that highs are likely to reach the mid 70s north and west of NYC, especially on Thursday. In the warmer case scenario, highs may get up to 80 degrees north and west of NYC on Thursday. Depending on the timing of the approaching cutoff low, Friday appears to be the warmest day at least according to the latest models; the forecast is still subject to change, depending on any other possible cold front, but should the cutoff low be delayed enough to allow Friday to bring the warmest temperatures, highs in the mid to upper 70s would be possible north and west of NYC once again, getting up to 80 degrees in the warmer case scenario. Stay tuned for more information on the late week warmth.

Going into next weekend and beyond, model solutions begin to become increasingly different, but the ECMWF is the most exaggerated model, bringing in an extremely colder air mass with blocking which according to that model, would be enough to result in a snowstorm. The 0z ECM, however, is a complete outlier when compared with the other models, the teleconnections, and the large scale pattern, and is ruled as an outlier for the longer range. Otherwise, it appears that the cutoff low should gradually drift towards the region, possibly resulting in some showers for the weekend, but at least at this time it appears that if it does rain in the weekend, heavy rain is unlikely, and no significant cool down is expected, with temperatures likely returning into the 50s and 60s, which is still warmer than average.