Mar 12, 2012: Warm Tomorrow, Colder Late Week

Forecast Highlights:


- 75 degrees near NYC tomorrow, isolated evening T-Storms
- Colder ending to this week, chilly weekend; some rain expected
- Possible second surge of warmth next week


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With the high pressure still off the coast with southwest winds, temperatures warmed up today even more than yesterday, with highs reaching the lower 70s across most of northern NJ, SE NY and NYC. Long Island, southern CT, and coastal parts of NYC reached the lower to mid 60s, with the immediate coast staying near the mid to upper 50s. Parts of the area, such as Newark with a high of 73 degrees, set new record highs for today.

The warmest day of the week and possibly of the entire warm spell will be tomorrow, with partly sunny skies and highs reaching the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further north/west. Behind the cold front tomorrow evening, colder temperatures will return for Wednesday, but the cold front will remain trapped further south than originally expected, keeping a stronger onshore flow with highs in the 50s to lower 60s across most of the area for the late week along with some rain. Temperatures will begin to warm up again during the weekend and early next week, although there is uncertainty with the extent of next week's warmth.


Tomorrow's Outlook:


*Isolated Severe Weather Risk (10%) - More information in Severe Wx page*

After some showers late tonight into the early morning hours tomorrow, partly cloudy skies are expected for Tuesday afternoon, and along with southwest winds and a warm air mass, temperatures will quickly warm up across the area, reaching the lower to mid 70s across northern NJ, SE NY and NYC; parts of the immediate NYC area, especially near NE NJ, are likely to pass the 75 degree mark. Due to the SW winds, colder temperatures are expected further east, with highs in Long Island and southern CT reaching the lower to upper 60s except for coastal areas, where highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With the cold front moving through tomorrow evening, isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially west of NYC, although these storms should not be widespread, and most locations are likely to stay dry.


Overview Of Week Ahead:


- With the cold front moving through, highs on Wednesday will reach the lower to mid 60s across most of the area with mostly sunny skies. The cold front, however, will remain stuck to the south of the area, and now appears to be even further south than previously expected. As a result, an onshore flow will develop for Thursday and Friday. Thursday will bring highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s near western NJ and the lower to upper 50s across the area, reaching the upper 40s to lower 50s near the immediate coast, and with areas of rain expected on Friday, highs are likely to be in the mid to possibly upper 50s from NYC and further north/west, with lower to mid 50s further east.

- Most of the rain will move out by next weekend, although isolated showers may be possible on Saturday. Another back door cold front will move through, with highs likely staying stuck in the mid 50s to lower 60s through Sunday. The exact temperature forecast, however, is still uncertain and is subject to slight changes.

- Uncertainty increases next week regarding the ridge. Most models now show at the very least 1-2 very warm days for the area, with near 80 degree weather near NYC, but the models also showed very warm temperatures for this weekend before it became apparent a cold front would move through. While there does appear to be a better potential for more significant warmth next week, this is still uncertain, and it is still possible that the biggest warmth stays to the north and west of the area. Stay tuned for more information on next week's outlook.