Sept 29, 2011 Storm Updates

Below, short updates on the rain and thunderstorms affecting the area will be posted throughout the day.

*Short term graphics will be posted below. Click on the graphics to view them in a larger size.*

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3:20 PM: With the scattered thunderstorms earlier this afternoon clearing the area, the cold front, currently over eastern Pennsylvania, is approaching the area. Ahead of this front is a line of strong to severe thunderstorms, currently stretching down from western Bergen to Somerset counties and moving slowly to the east. This line will affect NE New Jersey and NYC within the next 1/2 hour, and SW Connecticut and Nassau county within the next 1/2 to 1 hour.

2:00 PM: Widespread storms continue to affect the area. The strongest storm is currently near SE Warren county and is moving to the NNE/north, and is capable of producing strong wind gusts and heavy rain. A line of training storms continues to remain over NW NJ, with scattered thunderstorms near the coast of southern Connecticut and moving NE. Otherwise, the rest of the area will stay dry over the next 1/2 hour with scattered showers.

1:20 PM: The storm previously over NE NJ has moved into south central Westchester county, and will continue to move NE through the rest of Westchester into NW Fairfield county, CT, while slowly weakening. Meanwhile, a line of heavy thunderstorms has formed near NW NJ, and is slowly drifting to the northwest. A line of brief yet heavy thunderstorms has formed over northern Long Island and will move NE/NNE, reaching the coast of southern CT within the next 20-25 minutes, and another strong storm will move into northern Middlesex/Union counties within the next 25-30 minutes. Otherwise, light rain will affect NYC and western Long Island.


12:55 PM: The strong thunderstorm previously mentioned is currently over SE Bergen County, near Fort Lee, and is moving NE. This storm will affect eastern Bergen, SE Rockland, and Westchester counties over the next 15-30 minutes with heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and small hail.

12:20 PM: A strong thunderstorm has formed near eastern Union county, and is moving towards the NNE. This storm is capable of producing strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and small hail. Within the next 1/2 hour, this storm will affect Manhattan and Bronx in NYC, Eastern Essex and Eastern Bergen in NJ, and SE Rockland and Westchester counties in SE NY. In addition, a weak thunderstorm is also located over NE Warren county, and will move north into central Sussex county.


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10:00 AM: Thunderstorms, Potentially Strong, Expected Today


Last night, a round of moderate rain and thunderstorms affected the western half of the area, bringing rain totals up to at least 1/2 to 1 inch in Rockland/West Passaic counties,1.5 to 3.5 inches in NW NJ and Orange County, NY, and 1/2 to 1 inch from eastern Suffolk county into south central Connecticut. The rest of the area generally saw up to 1/4 inch of rain.

The original outlook for today was for cloudy skies with occasional showers. Instead, however, the cloud cover has cleared in parts of the area, and temperatures are rising along with humidity and instability. When combined with a lift index of -5 and bulk shear up to 45-50 knots, scattered strong thunderstorms are expected to form in Pennsylvania and affect the area, especially from NYC and further north/west, between 2 and 6 PM. The main risk with these storms will be gusty winds, with small hail also a potential risk with these storms. In places that will be affected by these storms, at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected with locally higher amounts. Due to the decreased cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer as well, peaking in the mid to upper 70s inland and the upper 70s to lower 80s in the immediate NYC area.

The storms are expected to end by this evening, with clearing skies for the overnight hours. Occasional updates will be posted today, with the next full update tonight discussing the storm expected to affect the area on Saturday, the cold temperatures on Sunday, and the outlook for next week into next weekend, going from a potential second cold spell to a warm spell.