Sept 15, 2011: Dry Conditions To Continue

With a cold front moving through the area today, temperatures were colder than the last few days. Unlike Wednesday, when temperatures reached the mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, today only brought temperatures into the mid to upper 60s NW NJ/SE NY, lower to mid 70s in NE NJ, mid to upper 70s in NYC, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. This type of temperature gradient is not something that happens every day, and was a result of the timing of the front, where the eastern parts of the area had more time than the western parts of the area to warm up before the front moved through. The front produced scattered showers across the area, though rainfall amounts mostly stayed below 1/4 inch.

With the front now to the east of the area, temperatures quickly dropped into the 50s across most of the area by the evening hours, and a breezy NW wind has developed, with winds gusting up to 30-35 mph across most of the area. The winds will decrease overnight as temperatures continue to drop, reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s inland, mid 40s in NE NJ and southern CT, mid to upper 40s in Long Island, and upper 40s to lower 50s in NYC. Colder than average high temperatures are expected for tomorrow, and with a strong high pressure moving into the region, temperatures will gradually warm up into the 70s with dry conditions lasting through the middle of next week.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

A much colder air mass will move into the region tonight, bringing colder than average temperatures tomorrow across the area. 850 mb temperatures will be colder than they typically are around this time of the year, dropping down to only 2-4 degrees celsius. In comparison, 850 mb temperatures yesterday were around 15-17 degrees celsius. As a result of the colder temperatures aloft, temperatures will be much colder at the surface than they were today, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 60s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid to potentially upper 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. These temperatures are equivalent to the high temperatures during October.


Weekend Into Next Week: Dry, Slowly Warming Up

With a strong high pressure moving into the region late tomorrow, mostly sunny skies will continue through the weekend across the area. The cold air mass will begin to weaken as the cold air shifts back into Canada, but temperatures will remain below average, with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s across the area on Saturday, and the mid 60s to lower 70s on Sunday.

The high pressure, meanwhile, will be stuck over the region, with no additional storm approaching the region through the middle of next week. A weak low pressure will form near the Carolinas during the weekend, which will produce showers in the Carolinas and southern Virginia before starting to move offshore next week, but the high pressure will block the storm from moving north towards the NYC area. As a result of the high pressure, mostly to partly sunny skies will continue through at least Wednesday next week with no rain expected. Temperatures will gradually warm up with each day, reaching the lower to mid 70s in NW NJ/SE NY and the mid to upper 70s across the rest of the area by Wednesday.

By the end of next week, there is more uncertainty with the models regarding several potential low pressure systems across the region. Even though there is uncertainty with the individual details of this time frame, with the models only expected to begin reaching a closer consensus once this time frame reaches the shorter range, but when looking at the overall pattern at that time, there is a greater chance that the area may see rain around Thursday/Friday next week, along with mild temperatures, potentially getting close to the 80 degree mark. Stay tuned for more information on the end of next week.